2024-08-22 · auto-analysis (draft)

The Man Taking on Tesla in the Race for Humanoid Robots w/ Brett Adcock | EP #116

Discussion on the progress, cost reduction, market potential, and philosophical implications of humanoid robots, with a focus on reducing costs and expanding market reach. Brett Adcock discusses the role of AI in robotics, particularly embodied AI and multimodal models, and predicts the future prevalence of humanoid robots in daily life. The podcast discusses the progress of Tesla's Optimus project in humanoid robotics, the competitive landscape, and the advantages of having a capital-rich company. It also introduces Fountain Life, a company focusing on early disease detection and therapeutic solutions. The podcast discusses the future of robotics, particularly focusing on China's shift towards robotics and the importance of building a high-quality team for success in the industry. The podcast discusses Viome's health product and its benefits, as well as the future of human-robot interac

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Topics

Robotics Robotics ▶ 0:00
Discussion on the advancements in robotics, particularly with Figure AI and its new robot, Figure 2.
Tesla and Optimus Tesla|Robotics ▶ 0:08
Peter Diamandis compares Tesla and Optimus, praising Tesla's progress in the robotics field.
Robotics Manufacturing Robotics ▶ 0:50
Brett Adcock discusses the rapid iteration strategy and manufacturing process of Figure AI's robots.
Future Projections Robotics ▶ 1:14
Brett Adcock projects 10 billion robots on the planet by 2040, emphasizing the growth potential of the robotics industry.
Cost Reduction Economy ▶ 10:21
Prediction of reducing the cost of humanoid robots by over an order of magnitude.
Market Potential Economy ▶ 14:02
Estimate of a market for up to 10 billion humanoid robots by 2040.
Philosophical Implications Geopolitics ▶ 15:01
Discussion on the moral imperative of having humanoid robots for AGI and digital super intelligence.
AI AI ▶ 19:07
Discussion on the potential for AI to enable human-level manufacturing and robotics.
Economy Economy ▶ 19:50
Prediction of how automation will drive GDP growth and potentially lead to zero-cost goods and services.
Energy Energy ▶ 19:34
Discussion on the role of renewable energy in reducing the cost of manufacturing and services.
AI for Robotics AI|Robotics ▶ 28:12
Discussion on AI's role in robotics, particularly embodied AI and its potential for AGI.
Multimodal Models AI ▶ 31:03
Multimodal models like GPT-4 are crucial for advancing embodied AI in robotics.
Semantic Grounding AI ▶ 31:51
The importance of semantic grounding in AI for robotics, allowing robots to understand and interact with the world more effectively.
Future of Robotics Robotics ▶ 36:34
Predictions about the prevalence of humanoid robots in the future and how they will change daily life.

Predictions made

open Brett Adcock: 10 billion robots on the planet by 2040
EP #? · · due: 2040 · ▶ watch
“by 2040 we will have 10 billion robots on the planet”
Your call:
open Brett Adcock: Reducing the cost of humanoid robots by over an order of magnitude.
EP #? · · due: unspecified · ▶ watch
“I think you're getting these costs down like sub $20,000 a unit like really cheap.”
Your call:
open Brett Adcock: Automation will drive GDP growth to infinity.
EP #? · · due: unspecified · ▶ watch
“GDP spikes to Infinity yeah”
Your call:
open Brett Adcock: Robots will be rolled out commercially and make a significant impact.
EP #? · · due: near future · ▶ watch
“we're at right now it's like how do we take you know like you know we're putting out cool videos and um that's great but like the next big step is like to go back and do useful work continuously”
Your call:
open Brett Adcock: Humanoid robots will be as common as cars in the future.
EP #? · · due: unspecified · ▶ watch
“I think that they will be more prevalent than cars are out there right there's like a million cars like a million other vehicles and we could see you know 5 to 10 I'm sorry a billion cars out there a billion other vehicles um and so it's going to be a very different future for them”
Your call:
open Brett Adcock: There will be 2-3 significant players in the humanoid robotics market.
EP #? · · due: unspecified · ▶ watch
“I think there'll be like I think the the way I look at it is we need more like really real players and I think Tesla's a really real player.”
Your call:
open Brett Adcock: Chinese robotics companies will be competitive in the humanoid space.
EP #? · · due: unspecified · ▶ watch
“I do think China is like the next group of folks that are going to be really competitive long term in the humanoid space.”
Your call:
open Brett Adcock: Longer term, the supply chain will be better controlled to reduce risk and margin profile.
EP #? · · due: unspecified · ▶ watch
“but there's just like um yeah I think we thought that was easy it became like a bloody hell so what's what's the what's the flip side of this thing that you thought was going to be hard and turned out to be easy would it would it maybe be the AI integration did I mean when you started did you imagine you're going to have to build out your own AI models we still do like a lot of our own AI models here which is like maybe not super well known but like um but we do we have a whole AI team we do most of the lot of work ourselves I would say across this we leverage some group like you know open AI we like work with on new models and stuff and use their like VM for some things so I think uh then that's been really helpful I think AI systems is probably the one that's been like wow this is really working and it's you know you think about like this split of like what percentage of the things are you going to have to hardcode and code to go do which is like you know more classical controls and heristics what percentage of things can we do through neural networks and I you know I would have thought going into this I guess my thoughts two years ago is like you know a large percentage of the stack would be written in in heristics and code um call like 95 90% And then as we are able to you know write neural nets for those that are at equivalent performance we will just take those uh that level of like code or C++ and remove it with the neural net and it's kind of been flipped yeah um all the is working uh for like a small team with like you know we don't have like a ton of tooling and infrastructure and things almost like right off the bat uh with like everything like just like like using slam or perception systems and object detectors and um planning and uh speech to speech reasoning everything the St like the high and low low levels have been working incredibly well and um so yeah I think it's pretty magical I just like it would take us such a long time to code all this stuff”
Your call:
open Brett Adcock: The company will continue to leverage AI for health guidance and personalized health advice.
EP #? · · due: unspecified · ▶ watch
“did you see the movie Oppenheimer if you did did you know that besides building the atomic bomb at Los Alamos National Labs that they spent billions on bio defense weapons the ability to accurately detect viruses and microbes by reading their RNA well a company called viome exclusively licensed the technology from Los Alamos labs to build a platform that can measure your microbiome and the RNA in your blood now viome has a product that I've personally used for years called full body intelligence which collects a few drops of your blood spit and stool and can tell you so much about your health they've tested over 700,000 individuals and used their AI models to deliver members critical Health guidance like what foods you should eat what foods you shouldn't eat as well as your supplements and probiotics”
Your call:
open Unknown: Collaborative robots will work closely with humans in about 2-5 years.
EP #? · · due: 2-5 years · ▶ watch
“best guess is that two years five years”
Your call:
open Brett Adcock: The company will start production next year and gradually expand to more customers as the product matures.
EP #? · · due: next year · ▶ watch
“we're starting a production line next year so um we'll start with a few as we um you know have like engineering really close with those customers and making sure that the product really works well”
Your call:
open Brett Adcock: The timeline for robots entering the home is accelerating.
EP #? · · due: unspecified · ▶ watch
“the timeline for us getting in home is accelerating”
Your call:

Numbers that matter