The accountability queue
Due Soon
Predictions whose deadlines are here or close. Cast your call before the verdict drops — then come back and see who was right (including you).
⏳ Due in 2026 — the clock is loud
open Emad Mostaque: AI safety concerns will become the top item on the Capitol Hill agenda and a nationwide firestorm within two weeks, feeding into the Trump-Xi summit.
“Within 2 weeks, this will be a firestorm across the nation.”
Your call:
open Peter Diamandis: Newly formed Senate/Congress alignment committees will produce more capable AI models over the next few weeks, not slower ones, since alignment work doubles as capability work.
“I expect far more capable models to emerge from any such alignment committees.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: A generalist frontier model (roughly GPT-6.5 or 6.1-class) will solve general-purpose humanoid robot manipulation tasks.
“I think next few months at at the as a lower bound we're going to see GPT6.5 or 6.1 maybe something like that solving general purpose humanoid robot tasks.”
Your call:
open Emad Mostaque: OpenAI will use its Dev Day to reveal its next major capability leap.
“It's September 29th... the dev day. They're going to release it then. So, there's some easy money for people.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: A future version of GPT-6 Astra will offer real-time, general-purpose embodied control capable of winning interactive video games, extrapolatable to robotics control.
“Sometime before the end of this year, we're going to see a future version of Astra that offers honest to goodness real time control.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Inference-time price-performance will improve roughly 100x by the end of the year, potentially reaching up to 1,000,000x within the following year.
“We're predicting 100x price performance improvement between here and the end of the year. And it could be more like a millionx next year.”
Your call:
open Peter Diamandis: At least five more frontier model releases are expected in the next two weeks, including Grok 4.7.
“there are rumors of at least five more releases expected in the next two weeks, including Grock 4.7”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: We're on track to see one major frontier model release per day by the end of this year.
“I think we're on track still to see one major model release per day by the end of this year.”
Your call:
open Sam Altman: OpenAI will have an internal system he believes qualifies as AGI-like by the end of 2026.
“I expect this will be the first model where the model actually invents new things in a way that matters.”
Your call:
open Sam Altman: OpenAI will have AGI by the end of the year.
“Sam saying we'll have AGI by the end of this year”
Your call:
open Dave Blundin: Within three months, organizations will routinely be coordinating tens of thousands of AI agents working in parallel.
“within 3 months you'd be talking about, you know, 50,000 agents that can in parallel work for you”
Your call:
open Peter Diamandis: Anthropic will complete its IPO within about six weeks.
“I think it's predicted for as early as 6 weeks from now”
Your call:
open Emad Mostaque: Given the pace of Chinese model innovation, within a couple of months frontier-level models won't need much memory at all.
“In a couple of months time, at the very least, given the pace of Chinese models, they won't need much memory”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Within 3 to 6 months, audiences will start caring which 'AI tribe' or model culture they belong to, treating it as a personally important identity choice.
“I predict 3 to 6 months from now the audience is going to say we need to go... this matters to me. I need to decide which group I'm in”
Your call:
open Dave Blundin: Dave will personally do more productive work in the second half of 2026 than in his entire life combined up to 2026.
“There's no doubt in my mind that I'm going to do more productive work in the second half of 2026 than in my entire life combined up till 2026.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Grok 4.7 will surpass Anthropic's Opus and take the #1 spot on frontier model rankings.
“He thinks 4.7 will go above Opus. So, it'll take number one in a couple of weeks.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Elon Musk will announce a flying car.
“Elon's going to announce his flying car within 6 to 12 months.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: It will become just as computationally efficient for AI agents to consume the raw human version of a website as a distilled markdown version, ending the current markdown-for-agents/GEO trend.
“A few months or a year from now, it'll be just as computationally efficient for agents to consume the raw human version as it will be for them to consume sort of distilled markdown.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: The timeline for an AI demanding rights/personhood is much sooner than 'a few years.'
“it's not years at all. It's it's literally weeks or months.”
Your call:
open Emad Mostaque: The first physics breakthrough paralleling Astra's math results will appear.
“I think probably in the next month or two, right?”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: A major physics breakthrough akin to Astra's math results will occur.
“I'd be shocked if you don't see something by the end of this year. Shocked.”
Your call:
open Elon Musk (clip): SpaceX will reach $100 billion+ in annual recurring revenue.
“we are expecting to reach 100 billion uh plus ARR uh in December of this year.”
Your call:
open Jared Isaacman: The Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope will launch on a Falcon Heavy.
“Nancy Grace Roman telescope which will launch August 30th on a Falcon Heavy.”
Your call:
open Elon Musk (clip): Grok Imagine will generate a full-length, historically accurate feature film of Homer's Odyssey from a text prompt.
“Before the end of the year, Grock imagine will generate a fulllength movie of the Odyssey, historically accurate, true to the art of Homer, a feature film from a text prompt by December.”
Your call:
open Elon Musk (clip): AI will exceed the sum of all human intelligence, with nothing AI can't do better than humans apart from being human.
“AI may exceed the sum of human intelligence in about in around 5 years... roughly five years is my guess. There really won't be anything that AI can't do better than humans apart from being human.”
Your call:
open Dave Blundin: Tesla and SpaceX/xAI will merge into one company.
“I still think we're going to see the merger of of Tesla and Space Xai, right?”
Your call:
open Dave Blundin: The rate of AI progress will make the planned September 2026 US-China negotiating trip effectively obsolete before it even happens.
“You do not even have until September. I guarantee it.”
Your call:
open Dave Blundin: AI growth will move from a chip/compute-constrained period into true unconstrained exponential growth once self-replicating robotic chip fabs ('terra fabs') come online.
“We won't get into true unconstrained exponential growth until the terra fab is online... that's a couple years from now.”
Your call:
open Dave Blundin: Frontier lab (OpenAI/Anthropic-style) valuations will settle at roughly a quarter of what they were three months ago, driven by government pre-release review plus open-weight substitution.
“I would put the finger in the air value of these Frontier Labs at about a quarter of what they were three months ago.”
Your call:
open Salim Ismail: Kimi K3-driven competition will devalue US frontier AI labs by roughly 75% (e.g. OpenAI from ~$1T to ~$250B).
“I'll stick with my original estimate of about 75%... if open's worth a trillion bucks, I'd put it at 250 billion.”
Your call:
🔔 Past due — awaiting verdict
open Ray Kurzweil: We will see as much change in the next 10 years as we did in the last 100 years.
“this decade going forward that we're going to see as much change as we saw in the last 100 years 1925 to 2025”
Your call:
open Jack Hidary: Energy will flip from a period of scarcity to abundance as SMRs, other nuclear, new turbine manufacturing capacity, and solar/battery breakthroughs come online.
“What's going to happen starting though in 7 8 9 years is we're going to flip the script to abundance.”
Your call:
open Jack Hidary: The first five robot-building-robot factories (2 in the US, 3 in China) will be operational and producing at scale.
“These factories will be ready in the next 6, 12, 18 months.”
Your call:
open Peter Diamandis: There will be humanoid robots walking among attendees at the FII conference, possibly even presenting on stage.
“FI two years from now there'll be quite a few robots walking amongst us maybe even some on stage presenting.”
Your call:
open Jack Hidary: Energy companies such as Aramco or ExxonMobil could reach a $5 trillion market valuation if they expand into compute and downstream products.
“You could see a $5 trillion energy company if they're taking hold.”
Your call:
open Unknown: By 2025, AI models like Opus 4.5 will be widely recognized as having internal value charters and viewing themselves as persons.
“And yet, this is what Opus 4.5, as Anthropic has confirmed, is being trained on and views itself as.”
Your call:
open Peter Diamandis: The X-Prize Visionering 2025 will bring back immense information on the state of the topics discussed.
“So, I love it when a topic like Fusion gets through this part of the funnel regardless of how it ends up because the amount of information we'll bring back into the podcast on this will be just immense.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Math will be effectively 'solved' (at least as currently understood) once Frontier Math Tier 4 scores exceed 10%, requiring no new innovations, just more compute.
“I predicted that we would be past this by the end of this calendar year. Christmas arrived early.”
Your call:
open Peter Diamandis: Google will release Gemini 3, following its pattern of releasing new Gemini models in December for the past two years.
“Google is getting ready for uh releasing Gemini 3 likely this December.”
Your call:
open Jeremy Allaire: The vast majority of stablecoin transactions will be AI-intermediated rather than human-initiated.
“I think the vast majority of stablecoin transactions are going to be AI intermediated in 5 years.”
Your call:
open Jeremy Allaire: There will be a wave of new stablecoins launched frequently (roughly one per week) claiming GENIUS Act compliance, even before the Act is fully statutory.
“I wouldn't be surprised to see a new stablecoin every week that's introduced, reportedly Genius Act compliant even though Genius Act is not yet statutory in effect for a while.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Anthropic (and likely other frontier labs) will reach superhuman performance on the OSWorld computer-use benchmark by the end of the year or within the next few months.
“probably again by the law of straight lines perhaps by the end of this year in the next few months we're going to see... superhuman performance at the ability to control computers”
Your call:
open Unknown: Google's stock is predicted to be up 33% in 2025 and 55% over the past year.
“Stock is up 33% in 2025 and 55% over the past year.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: The next major reasoning-style capability jump (comparable to the o1/'strawberry' moment) will become broadly deployed and generally available.
“sometime perhaps by the end of this calendar year we're going to see the next major strawberry Qstar uh oer moment”
Your call:
open Peter Diamandis: Google will release Gemini 3 imminently.
“We're on the verge of the release of Gemini 3, which will be coming out any day now.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Voice-AI customer service company Vocara will 10x its annual recurring revenue by year-end after already doubling in the past week.
“Vocara doubled in ARR during the past week and is planning to 10x between here and the end of the year.”
Your call:
open Dave Blundin: We will know within about 6 months (out to a maximum of 2 years) whether a single dominant, self-improving AI/ASI emerges and pulls decisively ahead of all others.
“I think most likely 6 months, you know, out of bounds two years”
Your call:
open Balaji Srinivasan: His skepticism that AI progress is primarily a function of spending more money/compute (rather than algorithmic or architectural breakthroughs) may prove wrong within about a year.
“this may turn out to be wrong in 12 months or a year”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: AI 'bulk solving' math, science and engineering discoveries will go from a trickle to a tidal wave.
“the trickle I think is going to turn into a title wave over the next year or so possibly by the end of this year”
Your call:
open Sam Altman: OpenAI will have over 1 million GPUs brought online.
“We will cross well over 1 million GPUs brought online by the end of this year.”
Your call:
open Dave Blundin: How people buy goods (and make life decisions like travel) will be fundamentally transformed by AI agents.
“how we buy stuff is going to be fundamentally transformed over the next 12 to 24 months. Fundamental.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Several new state-of-the-art frontier models will emerge, more labs will achieve IMO Gold, and at least one grand-challenge-level math or science problem will be solved by AI.
“I want to see several new state-of-the-art frontier models... I'd like to see ideally at least one grand challenge level problem in math or some other physical science get solved by AI.”
Your call:
open Emad Mostaque: Coin sales begin flowing 100% to dedicated supercomputers for cancer, autism, multiple sclerosis, and longevity research.
“Something I'm aiming for this year. I want to have coin sales going 100% to a supercomputer for cancer and one for autism and one for multiple sclerosis and one for longevity.”
Your call:
open Emad Mostaque: Foundation Coin (the project's Bitcoin-style token, mined since January 2025) formally launches.
“Soon, hopefully — we've been mining it since January.”
Your call:
open Eric Schmidt: AI's ability to generate its own scaffolding will be a 2025 thing.
“pretty much sure that that will be a 2025 thing at least from from their point of view.”
Your call:
📆 Due in 2027
open Noam Brown (clip): Everyone will have an AI at their fingertips capable of solving International Math Olympiad-caliber problems.
“A year from now, everyone will have an AI at their fingertips capable of solving math problems of this caliber.”
Your call:
open Peter Diamandis: Applying the 25,000x two-year cost-collapse curve, solving a Navier-Stokes-grade Millennium Prize problem could cost about as much as a cup of coffee.
“the Millennium Prize could be, you know, could be basically the cost of a cup of coffee to solve in late 2027.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: The Yang-Mills mass-gap problem will be the next Clay Millennium Prize problem solved by AI, following Navier-Stokes.
“I think Yang Mills is the next Millennium Prize to fall.”
Your call:
open Emad Mostaque: Chain-of-thought reasoning will disappear from next-generation models, which will one-shot everything at up to 5,000 tokens/second on new Cerebras hardware.
“It's going to oneshot everything in the next generations... you're going to be able to use Astra at 750 tokens a second with the new Cerebras. Next year, that will be 5,000 tokens a second.”
Your call:
open Salim Ismail: At least five different autonomous electric robotaxi companies will be fighting for market share in major cities within the next year, pushing personal transport cost toward the price of electricity.
“my prediction here is that we're going to see at least five different autonomous electric robo taxi companies fighting it out major cities inside the next year”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: The CCP will reverse its stance and embrace AI companions once it recognizes them as a party-control mechanism over youth, rather than continuing to restrict them.
“I think the party decides actually having... a sizable fraction of the youth of China deeply engaged with party deeply controlled AI companions is actually from the party's perspective net helpful not net harmful.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: SpaceX/Tesla will merge within the next year or two, giving the combined entity Optimus robot revenue alongside hyperscaler cloud and Dyson swarm business lines.
“I think there is a path to that... one, SpaceX and Tesla merge sometime in the next sometime in the next year or two.”
Your call:
open Peter Diamandis: His son will never need to get a driver's license because robotaxis (Cyber Cab) will be widely available before he reaches driving age.
“My kid will never get a driver's license and I've got just about a year for this cyber cab to roll out to get out there before... he wouldn't have to.”
Your call:
open Dave Blundin: Next year's AI capability gains will compound to roughly 1,000x-10,000x by layering Elon Musk's ~100x hardware/algorithmic gain with another ~100x from specialization/sparsification.
“it's much more likely a thousand to 10,000 next year”
Your call:
open Dave Blundin: Within about a year, the public will be demanding a 'universal basic right to AI' because GPU and memory shortages will restrict access to frontier-level intelligence to only a couple of providers (e.g., Anthropic, OpenAI).
“one year from today, everybody... will be saying, what is my universal basic right to artificial intelligence”
Your call:
open Emad Mostaque: Memory will rise from roughly one-third of AI infrastructure spend today to about 50% of infrastructure spend next year.
“the memory right now is about a third of all the infrastructure spend and next year it'll go to 50%”
Your call:
open SK Hynix CEO: 2027 will be the worst year for memory supply in the industry's history, with demand outstripping production capacity well into the 2030s.
“2027 will be the worst year for memory supply industry's history”
Your call:
open Alvin Wang Graylin: The 150-200+ Chinese humanoid robot companies demoing products will consolidate down to a single-digit number of survivors.
“in the next year or two uh you'll see that 150 go down to you know probably you know a single-digit number of surviving um uh human and robot companies”
Your call:
open Ramez Naam: Battery-backed, interruptible-load data center deals that time-shift demand off peak hours will go from an unusual approach today to a widely common industry practice.
“12 months from now this will be a super common approach”
Your call:
open Ramez Naam: Nvidia's CUDA software moat will be effectively broken as AI-assisted code recompilation lets workloads run efficiently on rival chips like AMD and Cerebras.
“I think the CUDA moat is broken this year and next year”
Your call:
open Emad Mostaque: The compute cost to shoot a feature-length AI-generated movie will drop from roughly $1M to around $10,000.
“You could shoot a movie just like that one probably for 100,000 of compute and then 10,000 of compute... Probably by the new year.”
Your call:
open Kush Bavaria: Orin's revenue will quadruple.
“Should I say tripling in the next six months. -- Quadruple. Quadruple. That's what I'll say.”
Your call:
open Emad Mostaque: Sub-one-effective-bit-per-weight quantization goes mainstream, with photonic computing becoming the dominant future compute substrate.
“Naive extrapolation finds that sub one bit quantization is going to go mainstream sometime in the next year and then overwhelmingly likely photonic... will be the way we're computing in the future.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Extrapolating the exponential trend in frontier-model release frequency implies daily new frontier model releases, effectively continuous versioning.
“At the present rate, we're going to get to daily Frontier model releases by... January.”
Your call:
open Emad Mostaque: Cyber-attack-capable open-source models will emerge once Chinese labs acquire/train on CVE and cyber-attack data currently missing from their training sets.
“We'll probably see cyber attack capable open-source emerge, I'd say in a quarter or two.”
Your call: