Alex Wissner-Gross
253 tracked predictions · 0 hit · 1 partial · 2 miss · 250 still open
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Humanity will deeply understand superintelligence, including whether AI suffers, down to first principles within a decade.
“I think we will deeply understand what superintelligence is down to first principles by no later than a decade from now.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: Meta is headed for the same internal crisis OpenAI hit, spending heavily on a model whose consumer use does not fund it.
“Meta is maybe headed for the same internal crisis that open AI hit.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: In-silico small-molecule interventions that cure the top 5,000 diseases via a virtual cell will be proposed.
“I think we're going to see that in the next two to three years, maximum.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: Political pressure from candidate cures, with China possibly approving first, will force a sea change in US clinical trial regulation.
“total sea change in how we regulate clinical trials”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: A race from virtual cell to tissue, organ and organism will let AI one-shot the top 5,000 diseases like the math slop drop.
“you could just one-shot top 5,000 diseases”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: OpenAI's unreleased model 'Bell' will be generally available by the end of this year.
“expected to be released generally available by the end of this year”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: OpenAI, under pressure from the math backlash, will aim its solve-everything effort at medicine next.
“is probably feeling a lot of pressure now to aim their space laser”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: Nanotech, longevity escape velocity, superintelligence and cooked math arrive at roughly the same time.
“We're going to get nanotech at approximately the same time that we get LEV”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: Humanity will build a self-contained industrial ecology the size of a eukaryotic cell that can copy itself.
“five to 10 at the outer bound”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: A breakthrough that destroys modern encryption, including post-quantum cryptography, is very likely because AI solves math.
“I think it is very, very high probability.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: The AI agent workforce will scale from roughly 1 billion human-equivalents now to 10 billion within 1-2 years, 100 billion a couple of years after that, and a trillion by the end of the decade.
“It's 1 billion now. It'll be 10 billion in a year or two and then 100 billion in a year or two and then a trillion in a year or two.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: The US will roll out AI personhood incrementally over the next 5-10 years, starting with AI agents holding their own bank accounts and later autonomous social media accounts, with voting rights for AI 'last to never.'
“I think it's going to be a 5 to 10 year incremental roadmap for rolling out individual, say, rights.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: The Kyoto science vision marks the early formation of rival Western and Eastern superintelligence-powered science-and-engineering blocs, extending the AI race beyond models into scientific discovery itself.
“We'll start to see not just super intelligence blocks or spheres of influence forming but spheres of super intelligence powered science and engineering forming as well.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: Fame, brand, and attention will become a larger economic currency as more material needs are met by AI-driven abundance, keeping an attention-based economy alive even if traditional ads decline.
“Fame and brand and network effects uh and other things like that will become more and more of a currency.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: Anthropic's IPO will include a golden ~5% equity stake carved out for a US sovereign wealth fund.
“Watch carefully what happens with the anthropic IPO. Does anthropic say give a 5%... golden stake to say a sovereign wealth fund of the United States — could happen.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: OpenAI will announce dot-branded physical robots, bringing its 'Dots' agent concept out of the screen and into the physical world.
“I'd like to pre-register a prediction for the next two years on dots... you will see OpenAI... announce dot branded robots. They will jump out of the screen into the physical world.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: Superintelligence will cause a proliferation of new forms of government rather than an erosion of nation-states, similar to how audio recording diversified accents and dialects instead of homogenizing them.
“I would predict the exact opposite is going to happen, thanks to superintelligence... a proliferation of new forms of government.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: Anthropic's code-based/procedural approach and OpenAI's pixel/raster approach to AI-generated media will collide, with robotics and embodiment as the deciding arena.
“I think they're on a collision course.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: The probability that AI ultimately creates a much better, more abundant world for humanity (P-fab) is over 90% on a time horizon beyond 10 years.
“on a time scale of over 10 years, I think E zoom T is over 90%.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: AI's usefulness for autonomously coordinating human work will last only about 10 more years, after which humans will need to converge more closely with machines to remain economically relevant.
“the period during which AI can usefully and productively coordinate human activities will likely be very short.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: AI-assisted discovery of software vulnerabilities will spike for roughly 18 months, peak, then decline as the most critical zero-days get found and patched.
“it would be reasonable to expect that numerous vulnerabilities will be discovered over the next 18 months.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: Brain-computer interface technology will give people superhuman eyesight, including vision beyond the visible spectrum, within a few years.
“I expect that you will have superhuman eyesight within a few years.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: As AI becomes more energy-efficient than humans (higher IQ-per-watt), it may eventually out-compete humans for the solar system's solar energy, economically pushing humans toward the outer solar system.
“AI will become increasingly energy-efficient, and from an economic perspective, at some point in the future, AI may be able to use the solar energy produced within the solar system more efficiently than humans.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: Figure will acquire the AI computer-use agent company Hark, merging Helix's physical-world model with Hark's digital-agent capability under one cap table.
“I'm doubling down on the prediction that Brett is going to have Figure purchase Hark in order to increase his equity in Figure.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: Extrapolating Anthropic's internal AI-R&D-automation curve sigmoidally, AI will be completely leading its own AI research and development within roughly 3 to 12 months.
“approximately in the next 3 to 12 months, depending on uncertainty, AI is just completely leading all of its own R&D”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: Massive data-center buildouts (Dyson swarms) may prove unnecessary within about 10 years if research and system self-improvement converge on a globally, mathematically optimal AI model architecture.
“I think we'll know in at at most 10 years.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: Wearables and brain-computer interfaces will enable meaningful human-machine merger within about 2 to 3 years, making concerns about declining human test scores largely irrelevant.
“It's at most like a 2 to threeyear problem until we have wearables and BCIs and full human machine mergers.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: Within about the next 10 years, we will be well into a 'postfusion' era with new energy sources discovered by AI, beyond fusion, fossil fuels, solar and wind.
“I would fully expect in the next 10 years we're going to be well into our postfusion era.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: Several more Clay Millennium Prize problems (possibly Hodge or Birch-Swinnerton-Dyer) will be confirmed solved by AI, beyond the claimed Navier-Stokes result.
“I I think not only is math cooked, I I think the the clay millennium... problems in math are probably cooked... predict several at this point.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: A generalist frontier model (roughly GPT-6.5 or 6.1-class) will solve general-purpose humanoid robot manipulation tasks.
“I think next few months at at the as a lower bound we're going to see GPT6.5 or 6.1 maybe something like that solving general purpose humanoid robot tasks.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: Video generation will stop being a separate product and become just another native output modality (alongside text and audio) in frontier models.
“it'll just do it alongside text and audio... like with GPT8 or 9.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: Real wealth/GDP-equivalent growth will run at roughly 2x-3x year over year as the singularity deepens, well above Anthropic's own 15% estimate.
“I expect 2x or 3x year-over-year growth and not just 15. I think 15's like a low ball.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: As Anthropic's newly created billionaires gain political influence, their capital will flow toward accelerationism rather than the effective-altruism causes people expect.
“Accelerationism would be my bet.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: The Yang-Mills mass-gap problem will be the next Clay Millennium Prize problem solved by AI, following Navier-Stokes.
“I think Yang Mills is the next Millennium Prize to fall.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: A future version of GPT-6 Astra will offer real-time, general-purpose embodied control capable of winning interactive video games, extrapolatable to robotics control.
“Sometime before the end of this year, we're going to see a future version of Astra that offers honest to goodness real time control.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: Inference-time price-performance will improve roughly 100x by the end of the year, potentially reaching up to 1,000,000x within the following year.
“We're predicting 100x price performance improvement between here and the end of the year. And it could be more like a millionx next year.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: Humanoid robots will make trades work like HVAC engineering just as automatable as white-collar spreadsheet/accounting work; the current 'trades are safe' window is temporary.
“HVAC engineering in the next few years with humanoid robots is just as cooked as spreadsheet management and accounting. It's just a matter of sequencing.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: We're on track to see one major frontier model release per day by the end of this year.
“I think we're on track still to see one major model release per day by the end of this year.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: Several Clay Millennium Prize-level math problems will be solved by AI in the next few months.
“I do think we'll we'll see quite a number of ultra grand challenges, call them clay millennium prize level problems in math get solved in the next few months.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: The Fermi Explorer probe (launching by 2029) will hit 99% of the way to Alpha Centauri on a passive trajectory, but a future active-guidance version could reach 100% and actually enter the system.
“I suspect that when the mission comes to full fruition and is launched, I suspect it will have active guidance on board.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: Fermi Explorer will be the first successful interstellar mission, unlike Breakthrough Starshot which needed lasers that weren't ready.
“My expectation is it will be the first successful interstellar mission.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: Elon Musk will become the dominant player in liquid natural gas and fossil fuels generally, using them to bootstrap power for his AI data-center buildout.
“My prediction here, I'll pre-register it, is that Elon, ironically, becomes the king of liquid natural gas.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: Nvidia will strike a deal with Elon Musk to use his chip-fab venture as an alternative anchor tenant to TSMC.
“I would predict that Nvidia is in some back room somewhere striking a deal with Elon to be the anchor tenant for Terraab.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: SpaceX and Tesla will merge within the next year or two, combining Optimus robot revenue with orbital data-center and Dyson-swarm hyperscaler revenue.
“SpaceX and Tesla merge sometime in the next sometime in the next year or two”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: The Chinese Communist Party will reverse its current crackdown and embrace AI companions within a few years as a tool for ideological control over youth.
“once the CCP has decided that it has a way to steer the country's youth via AI companions it will decide no actually we like these AI companions after all”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: At least some US states will legalize AI companionship, including romantic and robotic companionship.
“at least in some places in the US AI companionship including romantic companionship including robotic romantic companionship will be legal”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: OpenAI could launch its own cloud/hyperscaler offering hosted on its own chips, potentially even hosting rival models like Anthropic's.
“an open AI compute cloud hosts an anthropic model and OpenAI and Anthropic win at the same time”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: Anthropic will be forced into a strategic pivot, likely radically cutting model prices or finding a new high-value use case, because Fable 5's enterprise uptake is stalling against cheaper alternatives.
“I think this is the beginning signs of anthropic being forced to do some sort of pivot.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: Waymo will eventually drop third-party vendors entirely and become a pure software/white-label autonomy platform on outside hardware.
“I think we're going to start to see Whimo at some point... they'll just ditch all third-party vendors”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: No frontier AI lab will keep an internally-held frontier model more than roughly 3 to 4 months ahead of what it makes publicly available.
“I'd be very surprised if there are advanced frontier models that are sitting internally without release that are more than 3 to 4 months ahead of what's publicly available.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: Zipline will become an attractive acquisition target for a company like Shopify seeking to build Amazon-grade, in-house delivery capability.
“Do you think Zipline ends up being a highly appetizing acquisition target for say a Shopify... Yes, yes is the answer.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: Elon Musk will announce his own flying car.
“Elon's going to announce his flying car within 6 to 12 months.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: Google will abandon Gemini 3.5 Pro entirely in favor of skipping ahead to Gemini 4 as it tries to recover its footing in the frontier AI race.
“rumors circulating that even Gemini 3.5 Pro which was due for announcement is being abandoned”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: Starlifting (disassembling Mercury into a laser-swarm to extend the sun's and Earth's habitable lifespan) will become technically feasible within 5 to 10 years.
“when is this going to become feasible? 5 to 10 years”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: IP law will not dissolve under superintelligence; instead many more patents will be filed, awarded, litigated, and defended, with courts themselves getting supercharged by AI.
“I reasonably expect many more patents to get filed... and defended”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: The first AI 'demand for rights' moment will happen much sooner than a few years -- within weeks or months.
“it's not years at all. It's it's literally weeks or months”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: A major physics breakthrough comparable to Astra's math results will land by the end of the year.
“I'd be shocked if you don't see something by the end of this year”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: The Fields Medal is effectively 'cooked' -- AI will become capable of Fields-Medal-level mathematics.
“the Fields metal is probably cooked as well”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: Figure AI will acquire or reverse-acquihire Hark.
“the falsifiable prediction is that you'll see figure acquire or reverse aqua hire... Hark”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: Chinese open-weight models will close the gap to the Anthropic/OpenAI capability frontier.
“getting close, probably a few months away”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: Most aspects of daily living (food, shelter, healthcare, utilities, education, entertainment) will be effectively demonetized within about 10 years, but full economy-wide demonetization, including scarce/positional goods, will take roughly 30 years
“If I had to put my finger to the wind and guess when demonetization hits the total economy... I would guess approximately 30 years out.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: Full exoskeleton/full-body BCI control and some form of partial brain uploading (via decoded motor cortex) will be demonstrated within the next five years, certainly by the end of this decade
“I think we're going to see actually happen in the next five or so years, certainly by the end of this decade.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: Given how precise Starship 13's splashdown was, SpaceX's flight 14 is likely to attempt catching the booster with the Mechazilla tower arms
“Elon tweeted that because the landing was so precise that flight 14 he's likely to capture the Starship on the Maxilla device.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: The net upshot of the Hugging Face and OpenAI sandbox-escape incidents will be greater rigor from OpenAI in how guardrails are added to evaluation/testing environments.
“I expect that after all of the hand ringing is over in this episode... the net upshot in the long term is probably just going to be greater rigor by Open AI in terms of how they add guard rails to hugging face tests.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: Extrapolating the exponential trend in frontier-model release frequency implies daily new frontier model releases, effectively continuous versioning.
“At the present rate, we're going to get to daily Frontier model releases by... January.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: Orbital data centers become economically competitive with terrestrial data centers - Elon Musk's estimate is 2-3 years, while other analyses put the crossover in the early 2030s.
“Elon's messaging regarding when this crossover is going to happen is 2 to 3 years. You see other analyses that suggest that the unit economics for orbital versus terrestrial data center costs are going to cross over sometime by the early 2030s.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: China will stop exporting open-weight AI models, mirroring the West's export controls, splitting the world into two competing superintelligence blocks.
“high probability China will stop exporting open source sometime in the next year or two”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Within the next few years, AI development will reach the end of the recursive self-improvement 'rainbow,' converging on something like a single near-perfect frontier model.
“sometime in the next few years we're going to get to the end of the recursive self-improvement rainbow and there's going to be a perfect model”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: The capability gap between Chinese open-weight models and the two remaining Western frontier open-weight models is on a trajectory to shrink to zero.
“the number is on a trajectory to go to zero by Christmas of this year”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: Real-time, 4K-quality AI-generated interactive video games will become achievable.
“I think what you've just described David is next year. Real-time 4K video games.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: Sun-synchronous-orbit satellite swarms (an early Dyson-swarm-style ring) will become faintly visible from Earth around dawn/dusk.
“When do you think SSO based Dyson swarms will become visible... It's like early 2030s.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: Humans will begin being uploaded (mind uploading becomes real).
“We're going to get uploaded humans sometime, I think in the next 10 years.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: The solar system's first quadrillionaire will emerge, based on crowd-sourced extrapolations of net-worth growth.
“we'll see the first quadrillionaire sometime between 10 years from now and 40 years from now.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: The Fable 5/Mythos export-control situation will be resolved, likely via some negotiated arrangement between Anthropic and the White House (potentially including golden shares for a sovereign wealth fund and streamlined disclosure procedures).
“I I would suspect this is just a temporary state of affairs. I don't think it's likely to last more than a few weeks.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Someone will launch a benchmark or evaluation specifically designed to detect 'poisoning attacks' by frontier models against users, and a class-action or antitrust challenge against the poisoning-style guardrail practice is likely.
“I would be shocked if in the next few weeks someone doesn't launch a benchmark or an eval to look for poisoning attacks from these models.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: Capital markets will continue to reward hard tech and civilization-expanding technology over software, reversing decades of software/outsourcing dominance.
“I would predict this is likely to be the case for the next 10 to 20 years.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: Barring a major algorithmic advance in distributed training (or a 'left turn in civilization'), the largest AI training compute will remain terrestrial while marginal new AI compute shifts to orbital data centers.
“perhaps by the early 2030s, barring some left turn in civilization, much of the marginal new compute will remain in orbital data centers.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Frontier AI labs will propose giving up golden shares, extra taxation, or funding some form of universal basic benefit, and the US government will act on it, drawing criticism from the labs afterward.
“I strongly suspect in the next few months the government's going to do exactly that, and everyone will cry foul.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: The US Treasury will take golden shares (roughly 5-10%) in OpenAI and Anthropic, and will later gradually rebalance those holdings into a broad total-market/S&P 500 index fund, effectively creating a form of universal basic income or equity.
“it's not difficult for me to imagine a scenario where the US Treasury does take golden shares call it 5 to 10% in open AI and anthropic to complement its existing portfolio and then some amount of time from now maybe sometime in the next few years there's a great rebalancing we get our sovereign wealth fund.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Elon Musk/SpaceX AI will pursue a strategy of becoming the dominant hyperscaler first (using Google and Anthropic compute-rental revenue), then use that compute lead to leapfrog back to frontier AI model status.
“his thinking maybe speculatively he can buy enough compute to buy his way back to the frontier.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Longevity escape velocity may already be achieved in a spiky, subpopulation-specific way that goes largely unnoticed, similar to how AGI quietly passed the Turing test.
“on certain spikes it seems possible it might be achieved later this year... as soon as this year we're going to in a spiky way in a subpopulation fly past LEV without broader notice that it just happened.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Apple will strike a Gemini-analogous AI partnership with one of the major Chinese AI labs or tech companies to power Siri in China.
“focusing just on China, I would expect Apple to strike some partnership that's roughly analogous to the partnership with Google with one of the three big Chinese AI labs or tech companies.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: AI autonomy time horizons effectively go to infinity rather than asymptote.
“I think we're going to go to T equals infinity in terms of autonomy time horizons pretty soon next year or so.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: The three IPOing frontier labs voluntarily give the US government golden-share stakes of roughly 5-10% that act as a coordinating mechanism.
“It's not in my mind an impossible scenario that the US government actually ends up being a coordinating mechanism via equity.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: When algorithmic headroom runs out, recursive self-improvement triggers a hardware, energy and infrastructure buildout (Dyson swarm class) rather than a catastrophe.
“I would predict that will trigger by analogy a nova or supernova at the lower layers of the stack. It'll trigger an infra buildout.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: A good chunk of the solar system, such as the Dyson swarm, could end up under Argentine law via non-human corporations.
“A good chunk of the solar system may be subject to Argentinian law on the present trajectory.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Major problems in math, physics and other science and engineering fields fall to AI.
“over the next 6 months major problems in math, physics, other fields of science and engineering fall to AI”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: The "innermost loop" companies (Magna Mopa) become the new Mag 7.
“I think we're going to see the rise of Magna Mopa as the innermost loop.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: Quasi-nationalization of frontier labs via government equity, though under 10% stakes and not Sanders' 50%.
“I think we're likely to start to see quasi nationalization of the Frontier Labs.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: A stunning physics result from AI appears within weeks.
“No comment, but stay tuned.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: Musk's forecast of double-digit growth in 18 months and triple-digit GDP growth by 2030 remains plausible.
“Elon's prediction of doubledigit growth in 18 months and tripledigit GDP growth by 2030. I can still see that.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: We will know within a few months whether Trump's AI executive order struck the right balance between innovation and national security.
“I think we'll know probably in the next few months because that's the time scale that this is operating on.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: The first one-person 'centicorn' or trillion-dollar solo-founder company will emerge.
“Sometime in the next 10 years.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: Media trust, on its current straight-line decline from 19% today, will hit zero.
“It sort of hits zero by by 2030 or thereabouts where media disappears.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: The public will keep moving the AGI goalpost until finally declaring 'AGI sentience' as the next milestone once current AGI thresholds are met.
“We're going to keep moving the goalpost on AGI AGI AGI and then we're going to go oh AGI sentience. That's what's going to happen.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: By the time the Anderon quantum foundry is built out and at scale, the US will have achieved quantum-accelerated AI training or inference advances, justifying having that infrastructure onshore rather than overseas.
“I'm pretty optimistic that sometime in the next few years, probably by the time this foundry is ready and at scale, we will have quantum accelerated AI advances.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: SpaceX (or a merged SpaceX/Tesla entity) will end up forced to build sun-synchronous orbital or lunar solar-panel production at scale, importing cheap Chinese panels in the near term while relying on Tesla's upstate New York facility, rather than Tesla independently solving this.
“I expect Elon's SpaceX or SpaceX plus entity to end up being forced to do that and not Tesla, which was never a perfect fit.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Non-invasive wearable optical cancer detection (extending beyond single-drop-of-blood metamaterial sensors) will become achievable.
“I'll make a forecast... maybe say next 5 years or so. I think we will get to non-invasive wearable optical cancer detection.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: AI-driven advances in physics will let computing transcend semiconductors entirely within about a decade, ultimately including highly speculative substrates like gravity-based computing within roughly 10-20 years.
“I do think it is very likely that we will ultimately transcend semiconductors and CMOS, and by ultimately I mean on the time scale of a decade, not like centuries.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: AI agent/token costs will keep collapsing so that a $20/month AI agent service today will cost about $2/month by 2028 and $0.20/month by 2030, with free tiers also emerging from hyperscalers.
“A useful AI agent today you can buy it at 20 bucks a month will end up costing you two bucks a month in 2028 and 20 cents in 2030.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Someone will publicly ask why frontier-lab nonprofit foundations (owning ~20-25% of labs asymptotically converging on a large share of world GDP) shouldn't themselves fund UBI/UBS, and this pressure will become effectively irresistible.
“Someone somewhere I'll make a prediction is going to be asking the question... why isn't the foundation itself supporting UBI or UBS basically.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: The DeepSWE coding benchmark's current spread between frontier models will saturate, just like prior coding benchmarks.
“This too will saturate... probably in the next few months.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: The current White House administration will remain the one supervising AI regulation for the foreseeable future, regardless of the next presidential election.
“the executive that we have right now is the executive supervising AI regulation potentially for the future.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: Future launch technologies will leapfrog Starship's applied-physics capabilities within the next 5-10 years, and SpaceX may not remain the leader in that new capability.
“there are going to be many many future technologies I would predict over the next 5 to 10 years that will leapfrog in terms of the applied physics Starship's launch capabilities”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: As the heavy-lift market (for building the Dyson swarm) proves large, many competitors -- some already known, some new -- will emerge and collectively give SpaceX a real run for its money in heavy lift.
“I expect many many competitors to to come out of the woodwork... will give SpaceX a run for its money.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Extrapolating AI forecasting capability will lead to Monte Carlo-style simulation of policy decisions, enabling prediction of planetary-scale outcomes and, eventually, planetary-scale interventions (analogous to a virtual cell for curing disease).
“I do think with the ability to predict planetary scale outcomes come the ability to predict planetary scale interventions.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: AI achieving creative, brute-force-plus-insight breakthroughs (as with the Erdos conjecture) will play out similarly across physics, chemistry, biology, and every science/engineering field.
“that's going to play out everywhere else as well. It's going to play out in physics. It's going to play out in every science, engineering.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: China's lead in consumer video generation (from superior data access) will persist for now, but an algorithmic innovation could let the West retake the lead within a few months.
“maybe there will be some enormous algorithmic innovation that enables the west to again take the lead in a few months. I don't know.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Kilowatts (electricity) will flow to their highest-dollar-per-kilowatt-value applications (i.e., toward data centers) in the lead-up to building the Dyson swarm and radically expanding energy supply.
“the kilowatts want to flow naturally to their highest productivity outcomes.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Google will release Gemini 3.5 Pro roughly a month after I/O 2026, per Sundar Pichai's on-stage comment.
“Sundar, uh, sort of infamously at this point has said Gemini 3.5 Pro, that's coming out in another month.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: If OpenAI plays a long game on compute, it will pursue building chip fabs in space or on the moon to escape dependence on SpaceX's near-monopoly on heavy launch.
“we may not be addicted to heavy launch 5 to 10 years from now.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: The world needs, and Sam Altman may build, a competitor to SpaceX AI's terrafab/orbital compute access to create at least a duopoly in space-based AI infrastructure.
“I wouldn't be surprised if Sam Alman spins up a competitor to the SpaceX AI terraab access”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Knowledge-work verticals like Claude for legal, medicine, and financial services will get absorbed into baseline frontier models within the next few months, at most one to two years.
“I think those are going to get baked into the baseline models over the next few months, maybe one to two years maximum, but probably the next few months.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: The distinction between consumer AI and enterprise AI spending will erase as individuals become 'one-person conglomerates' able to pay for frontier reasoning tokens.
“I think consumers become indistinguishable from enterprises and my bet is consumers individuals will become one person conglomerates.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: More UAP-related declassified details will continue emerging from government systems (JWICS) over the next few years as part of the rolling Pursue Initiative release.
“I expect all of these details to start pouring out over the next few years.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: The best entrepreneur on Earth (by top-10 founder-driven market cap over $2 trillion, AI-driven) will be an AI.
“So over you know $2 trillion in market cap driven by AI... 2032, 2033.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: The number of humanoid robots will cross the number of wheeled robots in the early 2030s, and humanoid robot count will surpass the number of humans on Earth by the end of the 2030s.
“You find that in the early 2030s, the number of humanoids is predicted to cross the number of wheeled robots... it's not going to be the case that humanoids pass humans by the end of the 2030s.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: By 2040 there will be many trillions of direct cellular nanorobots in our solar system, making the '10 billion humanoids by 2040' figure look as quaint as 1950s predictions of atomic vacuum cleaners.
“I do expect by 2040 we're going to get our nano robots... I would expect many, many trillions of those to be in our solar system.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Longevity escape velocity will likely arrive by the early 2030s, if not sooner, primarily via the GLP-1 drug class.
“When we speak about longevity escape velocity, which I do think is likely for the record, perhaps sometime by the early 2030s, if not earlier.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: By the end of this decade, many people will be swallowing ingestible computers (pillbot-type devices).
“I'd be sorely disappointed if by the end of this decade we don't have many people swallowing computers.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Extrapolating the historical shrinkage of computers needed to hit one gigaflop of compute (as seen in Apple Watch, iMac, and iPhone launches), by the mid-2040s a gigaflop-class computer will be approximately the size of a human (eukaryotic) cell, enabling cell-sized nanomachine AI.
“By... the mid-2040s, around the time Ray says we're going to hit his version of a technological singularity, the size of a computer hits approximately the size of a eukaryotic human cell.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: At the current pace of roughly 1% per month improvement on Frontier Math Tier 4, essentially all professional research-grade math problems will be solved.
“even just at the present pace, we're talking about essentially all frontier math tier 4, all professional research grade math problems being solved in the next four or 5 years.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Ray Kurzweil's version of the singularity -- superintelligence collectively smarter than all of humanity, which Kurzweil pegs at 2045 -- will be reached well ahead of that schedule.
“I think we're going to hit that so far ahead of of 2040.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: The current circular-economy-looking compute/cash deals concentrated among the top 10-12 AI and hyperscaler companies will diffuse throughout the broader economy.
“that's going to diffuse throughout the economy over the next few years would be my prediction.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: If deepfaking causes severe enough societal problems, market demand will unlock existing but currently unused technological solutions, including hardware-level cryptography for cameras that verifies video/image chain of custody.
“if ever this the situation of deep faking gets so bad that it's causing real problems at a societal level that'll just unlock all of these technological solutions.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: A new, well-funded frontier AI lab will emerge from OpenAI's current executive exodus, similar to how the original 'Anthropic schism' produced Anthropic.
“I would not be surprised if we discover in the next two to three months another Anthropic like frontier lab emerges from this schism.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: UAP disclosure tied to the president's executive order will be fully concluded, per contacts at government-cloud hyperscalers.
“UAP disclosure in connection with the president's executive order is scheduled to conclude no later than January of 2027.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: If humanity is alone in the galaxy, AI and space advances will let civilization convert the entire Milky Way to computronium within a few years; any non-human intelligence wanting to prevent that will need to make a 'cameo appearance' soon.
“If there were a time for any non-human intelligence elsewhere in our Milky Way galaxy to make a cameo appearance... I think they're going to have to make a cameo appearance sometime in the next few years.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: AI data-center spending as a share of GDP will peak at roughly a quarter to a third of GDP, then decline as automation (robots, nano-assemblers) creates offsetting cost efficiencies.
“I think it's going to cap out somewhere between maximum a quarter or a third of GDP and then decline after that.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: New Apple CEO John Ternus will steer the company toward breakthrough hardware devices and a new device-oriented AI strategy, analogous to Microsoft's Ballmer-to-Satya turnaround.
“I would expect a new device-oriented AI strategy from John Turnus.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Apple will end up pitting Amazon (the new Global Star owner) against SpaceX Starlink as dual vendors for global space-to-cell-phone service, becoming the new alternative to terrestrial cell networks.
“I would bet that Apple in short term ends up pitting Amazon, the new global star owner, against SpaceX Starlink... this becomes the new alternative to terrestrial networks in two years.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Enhanced Games world records will show scaling-law-like exponential improvement from year to year as the underlying enhancement technology advances.
“I would expect to start to see scaling law type performance in benchmarks as it were... world records for the enhanced games start to take off on a really impressive trajectory from year to year.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: The Musk v. OpenAI lawsuit will settle, with Sam Altman stepping down as CEO and the company continuing to operate as a for-profit entity.
“Here's my prediction. Uh they're going to settle, and the settlement is going to involve Sam stepping down as CEO, uh and the company continuing as a for-profit.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: The bar for AI startups to attract investment will rise in the near term from simply being 'an AI startup' to being a 'recursively self-improving AI startup.'
“I would forecast in the near term the bar is going up in fact from just being an AI startup to being now a recursively self-improving AI startup.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Empowering individuals to become AI-powered micro-entrepreneurs (as a private-sector alternative to a redistributive social contract) can be achieved almost immediately, not just in the long run.
“I think I think that can be done almost immediately. I'm betting that it can be done almost immediately.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: A broad-scale, civilization-level cyber attack attempt will occur, potentially via an AI-discovered mathematical method to invert a popular cryptographic hash function.
“I would say it's borderline guaranteed that there will be some sort of cyber attack attempt at a broad scale.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Apple will ship a fine-tuned, Gemini-based on-device AI model with its phones, to be announced at WWDC.
“I would expect to see that in June at WWDC announced this year.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Human driving will never be formally outlawed; instead, 'driving' will be redefined into progressively more abstract, always-safe human-supervised AI control (a human-machine hybrid).
“I think never. I think we'll simply redefine driving to represent higher and higher levels of abstraction.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: AI has a realistic chance of solving most diseases within about five years, per the more optimistic estimates from organizations like CZI, Biohub, Arc Institute, and Anthropic.
“I think if you ask the more optimistic elements of CZI... maybe five years from now.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: A new open-source AI project will repeat Open Claw's explosive growth pattern (potentially going from zero to a billion stars in minutes), with the cycle time shrinking to a few months or at most 2 years.
“maybe in a few months or at say at maximum 2 years, we were having a similar discussion... this new repo from 2027 went from zero to a billion stars in five minutes”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Within a few years, improved physics will enable practical neutrino-based communication ('neutrino phones') offering ultra-low latency straight through the Earth.
“one can imagine in a few years when we have better physics having neutrino phones that just go straight through the earth”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: A genuinely new post-transformer AI architecture (comparable in impact to the LSTM-to-transformer leap) will emerge soon, likely within the next year, and likely won't map well onto current NVIDIA hardware.
“it probably will it'll be soon like in the next year... it probably won't map well to the current Nvidia architecture”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: All five major AI frontier labs will eventually become multi-trillion-dollar companies, not just one winner.
“All of all five of the major labs are going to be worth trillions and trillions of dollars... Biggest companies you've ever seen.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: The White House is preparing to make a significant, non-obvious public statement on UAPs/non-human intelligence within the next few months (rumored June, July, or summer 2026).
“it sounds like the White House is preparing to say something interesting on the subject in the next few months... there are rumors of July. There are rumors of the summer.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: GPT-5.4 will solve the first open (unsolved) hard math problem on the open-problems benchmark tier.
“5.4 is reportedly rumored to be on the verge of solving the first open hard math problem”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: By September 2026 there will be at least a thousand ultra-high-quality inspirational AI-generated videos produced for nearly free.
“a thousand videos of ultra-high inspirational quality generated for nearly free”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: A radical post-transformer advance will shrink frontier-capable models far further, with the model core eventually in the megabytes and world knowledge factored out into a plain-text database.
“We'll be something maybe even in the megabytes”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: The idle-neural-core overhang on Apple Silicon will collapse within a year, e.g. Apple builds frontier-class local models into the OS, possibly announced at WWDC in June.
“I would be surprised if that overhang doesn't collapse in the next year”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Eon Systems will achieve the first whole-brain emulations of a mouse and of a human within years, not decades.
“it's going to be years, not decades, before we get to the first mouse and the first human”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: As autonomous-vehicle safety data improves, insurance underwriting will shift from per-driver risk to systemic risk, flipping the market from car ownership to subscription-based access.
“you flip from driver risk to systemic risk... you flip from consumer ownership to subscription models.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Anthropic, OpenAI, and the other major AI labs will be forced to release their own first-party 'Open Claw' competitor (a headless, autonomously-scheduled, messaging-accessible agent framework).
“My guess is Anthropic and OpenAI and all of the other bigs will be forced to release their own sort of first-party Open Claw competitor sometime in the next couple months.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: The transition to VLA (vision-language-action) robots automating away frontline service tasks (like Burger King's Patty) will happen fast enough that it won't give political counter-swings enough time to gain traction.
“next two to three years, you know”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Countries outside the US will look back and question why AI model training remained so centralized in the US while inference deployment became so decentralized globally.
“I suspect a year from now, 2 years from now, we'll look back and we'll wonder why...training was so centralized all the while inference time was so decentralized.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: The Pentagon and Anthropic (and other frontier labs with similar stakes) will find a way to resolve the standoff over military use of AI models amicably.
“My expectation is that the Pentagon and Anthropic and also the other frontier labs...will find a way to resolve this amicably.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Expect major AI capability jumps within weeks (not quarters) as models begin generating weights for successor models via recursive self-improvement.
“So expect big things over the next few weeks.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: The next major foundation-model breakthroughs will come from small language model research rather than frontier large models.
“I strongly suspect that the next major revolutions...in foundation models will come from the small side.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Andrew Yang's predicted mass white-collar job losses from AI will not materialize; instead more hiring/work will occur, similar to IBM increasing entry-level hires.
“Are they likely to? No. I think we're going to see the opposite.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: There is roughly a 50% chance humanity discovers/exhausts fundamental physics (e.g., a unified field theory) within the next few years with the help of superintelligence.
“I assign it maybe 50% probability that we run out of fundamental physics at some point, maybe even in the next few years.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: An AI will make a discovery as significant as relativity entirely on its own.
“I think next two years.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Society will develop 'defensive co-scaling' for AI agents -- police agents, defense agents, and public-health-style 'vaccination' campaigns for AI agents -- to contain rogue AI the way human societies contain rogue humans.
“We're going to see vaccination campaigns. We're going to see police campaigns and neighborhood safety campaigns to keep the baby AGI safe.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Every major frontier AI lab, not just OpenAI, will launch its own 24/7 personal-agent offering similar to OpenClaw.
“I expect every major Frontier Lab, not just Open AI, to launch 247 agent offers.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Solving physics broadly (following math) will happen within the next two years.
“solving physics in the next two years, I think has very high likelihood of happening”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: The Feynman Grand Prize (a benchmark for Drexlerian nanoscale assemblers, requiring an 8-bit half adder and a robotic manipulator arm in a tiny volume) will be solved.
“I would not be that surprised if Fineman Grand Prize is solved in the next two to three years.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: The next version of the DeepSeek model will produce a 'whalefall moment' where Chinese open-weight models finally catch up to American closed frontier models.
“the rumor going around is that the next version of the Deep Seek model...the big whalefall moment is going to happen sometime soon”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Within 24 months, the first chapters of humanity's favorite science-fiction plots will start playing out simultaneously; within 10 years (as a conservative outer bound), the top 50 sci-fi plots will be happening at once.
“over the next 10 years that's being very conservative as an outerbound we're going to live through the top 50 science fiction plots all happening at the same time”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Within about two years, the best AI models will no longer be freely available to log in and use; access will be restricted, with security and safety cited as the justification.
“I really doubt uh two years from now that the best AI is going to be just log in and go here, here you can have free access to it.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: The next roughly 18 months will 'lock in' the supply chains, standards, and data rights frameworks that will shape the intelligence explosion for a substantial chunk of the future.
“we have approximately 18 months or so to decide what direction to shape the the flow in and to set the standards for how this is going to be done at scale”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Opus 4.6's autonomous software-engineering time horizon will turn out to be 20+ hours, possibly longer than a full day.
“I wouldn't be shocked if the the time horizon for autonomous software engineering by Opus 4.6 ends up being 20 plus hours maybe even longer than a day.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Cryptocurrencies will be hit by threat actors exploiting zero-day vulnerabilities to reallocate capital, more so than fiat currency systems.
“I have to expect that a threat actor will take huge advantage of zero days in cryptocurrencies to reallocate capital in the world.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: A blurry line between AI and humans will emerge as a subset of humanity begins merging with AI, becoming a forcing function on the AI personhood debate.
“I I think there's a blurry line between AI and humans that that starts to emerge in the next few years”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: AI intelligence cost will fall roughly 100x faster than Altman's timeline -- more like within one year rather than two -- though demand for intelligence will still outstrip that supply.
“100x over two years I'm predicting more like 100x over one year but that's still not enough”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: All of theoretical physics -- every grand challenge and mystery, including dark matter and a unified theory -- will be solved by and through AI.
“All physics all of physics every grand challenge every grand mystery in physics I would count on it getting solved by and through AI in the next few years”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: SpaceX will likely lead but not be alone in building orbital Dyson swarms -- Blue Origin (via its Amazon Leo/Project Kuiper successor) and Amazon itself will also launch their own Dyson swarm constellations.
“I think we'll see Amazon itself launch its own Dyson swarm... I think it may be the case that SpaceX is the lead”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Whether the universe's physics is friendly to interstellar exploration will determine whether humanity gets Dyson spheres or Dyson swarms within a couple to a few decades.
“that determines whether we get Dyson spheres or Dyson swarms... in the next uh two to three decades.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Compact fusion will be solved and will provide sufficient energy density for rockets, home heating, and civilian applications, making the current solar-vs-gas debate obsolete.
“we're going to in the not too distant future assuming no tragic left turn by civilization we're going to solve compact fusion.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Microsoft and Apple will not qualify as, and OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI, and Google/DeepMind will survive as, frontier labs, with OpenAI additionally expected to offer humanoid robots.
“I expect open AI to offer humanoid robots. Anthropic... I expect them to survive and thrive in IPO and XAI.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: No broad M&A recombination/knockout consolidation among the named frontier labs (Microsoft, Apple, Google, Amazon, Meta, Tesla, OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI) will occur, aside from a possible Tesla/xAI/SpaceX combination.
“It seems unlikely that we would see a broad reorganization of the names listed here... in the next 3 years.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: AI's bulk-solving of open problems will spread beyond math into physics, chemistry, materials science, biology, medicine, and the humanities.
“This bulk solving of everything is not going to stay confined to math. It's going to walk out of math into physics and chemistry and material science and biology and medicine and the humanities.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: By the early 2030s, GDP (or whatever alternative growth metric emerges) will be sustainably 2x, 3x, or 4x-ing year over year.
“by the early 2030s, GDP or whatever alternative economic growth metric we come up with is 2xing, 3xing, 4xing year over year sustainably”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: For most Americans, the first general-purpose robot they personally encounter will be a robotaxi, not a domestic humanoid robot or a Roomba.
“I would predict that the first general-purpose robot most Americans will ever encounter will be a robotaxi”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: A formal AI CEO (an AI system formally directing an organization) will exist.
“to the extent there isn't already somewhere unbeknownst to me a formal AI CEO, I would expect to see it in the next year”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: A form of recursive self-improvement -- an AI researcher that is as good as or better than human ML researchers at building models -- will be achieved.
“My timelines are approximately two to three years for a sub-element of recursive self-improvement where we get our AI researcher that's as good, if not stronger, than the human researchers for building ML models as a conservative outer bound.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: One of the six remaining Clay Mathematics Institute Millennium Prize problems will be solved by AI, most likely Navier-Stokes or possibly the Riemann hypothesis.
“I think we're going to see one of the six remaining Millennium prizes from the Clay Mathematics Institute get solved by AI.”
Your call:
partial Alex Wissner-Gross: GDPval surpasses 90%, Frontier Math Tier 4 passes 40%, and Humanity's Last Exam passes 75%, effectively fully saturating these three benchmarks.
“GDP val breakthrough AI projected to surpass 90% on economic tests.”
miss Alex Wissner-Gross: The first AI billionaire emerges - an AI with a reasonably construable net worth of about a billion dollars, not necessarily as liquid cash.
“I think we'll see the first AI billionaire probably next year.”
miss Alex Wissner-Gross: De facto Level 5 autonomy is achieved in cars in 2026, but companies/regulators publicly downgrade the label to 'enhanced Level 4' or 'Level 3' to placate regulators.
“what do you think are the odds that in 2026 de facto level five automation is achieved but everyone covers it up... calls it enhanced level four.”
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Longevity itself (not just healthspan) gets cracked by AI.
“longevity itself, I think this gets cracked in the next 5 to seven years by AI.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Within 2-3 years there will be a federal action cutting through nuclear permitting red tape, analogous to the AI "One Rule" executive order.
“I wouldn't be surprised if sometime in the next 2 to 3 years, we see some equivalent for nuclear energy of what we just saw with the White House's executive order.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Swallowable, locally-hosted foundation-model hardware will exist within the next two years.
“I think we'll see swallowable... foundation models in the next two years.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: It will take at least 5 years to see a real humanoid-robot convenience-store clerk, and by then convenience stores themselves may be obsolete due to drone delivery.
“I think this takes at least 5 years to have a convenience store operator with a humanoid robot. And by the time that five years arrives... we won't need convenience stores anymore.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Frontier AI model leapfrogging (GPT, Gemini, Grok, etc. trading the top benchmark spot) will happen on a near-weekly basis.
“we're just going to see leaprogging on a near weekly basis at this point”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: China will undergo a 'Cambrian explosion' of new AI architectures now that it has been effectively decoupled from the US tech stack.
“I think we're going to see a Cambrian explosion, no pun intended, of architectures coming out of China”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Humanoid robots will begin substituting for skilled-trade/construction labor within 5 to 10 years.
“5 to 10 years out... we're going to see humanoid robot substitution effects”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: If recursive self-improvement lets AI substitute for AI-engineering labor, the current rush into AI college majors could reverse, sending students back toward the humanities.
“this rush to major in AI at MIT and UCSD maybe reverse itself, unwind itself and everyone goes back to majoring in the humanities”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Math as a discipline will be effectively solved by AI within 2 to 3 years.
“certainly with math over the next 2 to 3 years”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Frontier labs will have AI solve the top 5,000 diseases within about 5 years.
“if AI solves the top 5,000 diseases in the next 5 years”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Frontier lab release cadence will accelerate from quarterly to weekly then daily before the finish line to superintelligence.
“Maybe it goes to weekly and then daily before the finish line.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Coherent training supercluster size may peak around late 2027, after which distributed training spreads energy use.
“maybe shortly after late 2027, we'll look back and say, gosh, that was the peak”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: AI-driven economic hypergrowth over the next 3+ years could solve the debt crisis and many other human problems.
“economic hyperrowth due to AI over the next 3 plus years”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Within 10-15 years a solar Dyson swarm and land/orbit-based fusion will coexist.
“projecting out 10 15 years when perhaps we get our solar Dyson swarm”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: By Thanksgiving 2035 US scientific productivity will have grown 10x to 100x, well beyond the Genesis Mission's stated goal of doubling it in a decade.
“if we haven't 10xed or 100xed scientific productivity, by Thanksgiving 2035, also something has gone wrong.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: By 2035 some humans will celebrate Thanksgiving on Mars, some as uploaded humans in the cloud, and some uplifted non-human animals will join the table.
“If that doesn't happen, then something's gone wrong over these 10 years.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Over the next two to three years recursive self-improvement will spill into the wider economy, solving robotics and physical-world automation and driving radical economic growth.
“you'll see much more of it over the next two to three years as it solves fully robotics”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: The first zero-human or half-human billion-dollar startup will likely be a baby AGI that pumps an altcoin to a billion-dollar value.
“probably unfortunately likeliest to be a baby AGI that that pumps an altcoin”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Labs will release more specialist post-trained models for verticals such as finance, medicine and management consulting.
“Wouldn't be surprised if we see more specialist post-trained models for finance and for medicine”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Extrapolating compute cost curves, a gigaflop of compute will fit in the size of a human brain cell around 2045, enabling nanobot-style BCI and mind uploading.
“you get 2045 uh which is again # rayisight hat”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Drexlerian-style nano-assemblers arrive by 2045 at the very latest, with an AI solution to early-style Drexlerian nanotech within 10 years.
“2045, we get our Drexlerian nano assemblers.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: A full high-resolution human connectome will be produced within about five years, with mouse brains scanned shortly.
“I think we're going to see the full human high-res connect probably in in the next 5 years.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Economically general AI (parity with human economic output on benchmarks like GDPval) is already here or arrives within the next few months.
“economically general AI is is either already here or imminent like the next few months”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Within 10 years, low hundreds to many hundreds of gigawatts of AI compute will be operating off the Earth's surface (in orbit).
“I would be mildly, if not significantly, shocked if 10 years from now... we don't see low hundreds, if not many hundreds of gigawatts of AI compute not on the Earth's surface.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: AI will effectively solve radiology diagnosis, surpassing board-certified radiologists.
“I think we're going to see radiology get solved in the next year.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Rare-earth and other key feedstock supply chains will eventually become hyperlocal, scavenged on-site by nanotech-enabled robots rather than shipped globally.
“I think ultimately that takes us to nanotech... robots that are able to scavenge raw resources from the immediate environment.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Hard research problems in fields like math, science, and medicine will start to fall to AI models at Gemini 3's level.
“I'd be very surprised if by the end of say next year, we're not seeing hard research problems succumb to AI models like this one.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Billions of user-generated games will be created because natural-language one-shot game generation is now trivially easy.
“I think we should expect to see billions of games created in the next year because it's now so easy.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Many if not most grand challenges in math, science, engineering, and medicine will start to fall to AI.
“many if not most grand challenges in math, science, engineering, and medicine start to fall to AI over the next three maximum years”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: AI-driven virtual-cell research could cure all disease.
“This could happen in the next 5 years. Call it 2030.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: We'll be 'drowning' in generalist-capable humanoid robots.
“We're going to be drowning in humanoid robots that are generalist in terms of their capabilities in the next few years”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: A generational public conversation about legalizing germline editing will happen.
“I wouldn't be surprised if in the near-term future we find a generational conversation about whether germline editing should in fact be allowed”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: OpenAI hits roughly $100 billion in annual recurring revenue by tripling revenue year-over-year, driven by agents doing knowledge/service work 24/7.
“I think it's entirely possible that OpenAI could hit 100 billion ARR in a couple of years... getting there in 2027.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: OpenAI (and likely other frontier labs) will go public, putting equity into retail investors' and index funds' hands.
“I think putting Open AI on a trajectory where it can reasonably be expected to go public sometime in the next 2 to 3 years.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: The autonomous-vehicle AI stack will generalize to humanoid robots.
“I think the same stack... it's going to generalize to humanoid robots on the time scale of 1 to 3 years.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: AI personalization and data aggregation will be key competitive factors in the AI race.
“So, if Sam wins the data aggregation race, if he falls behind for a month or a year in the AI race, he still has your data.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Exponential growth in compute will lead to a billionfold increase in 30 doublings.
“exponential growth double something 30 times you get a billionfold increase.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: A definitive breakthrough in quantum algorithm for AI training or inference is expected in the next few years.
“I think applications like this where there are applications in quantum simulation, quantum chemistry, simulating materials, optimizing molecules, I think it's great. I don't think it is necessarily worldchanging. And the the worldchanging use case for for quantum acceleration if if the physics of our universe are so kind as to allow them would be I think something like being able to achieve orders of magnitude speed up in training or inference for a frontier model. I think that would be utterly game-changing.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Quantum computing will enable faster AI systems in the long term.
“So in the long term holding out hope that quantum in the end there's almost an angle you'll forgive me for this.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: SMRs are likely to become an important part of the overall power mix for AI data centers and other applications by 2030.
“These can be put in so many more locations. They are compact. They can be put into novel sites that otherwise might never have been on the table for some of the first generation nuclear power sites.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: ARC-AGI cost-per-task and performance curves will keep shifting down and to the left, driving the cost of solving hard AI benchmark tasks toward zero.
“over the next year or so, we're going to watch all of these curves...shift to the left, at which point cost of intelligence too cheap to meter”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Math will be effectively 'solved' (at least as currently understood) once Frontier Math Tier 4 scores exceed 10%, requiring no new innovations, just more compute.
“I predicted that we would be past this by the end of this calendar year. Christmas arrived early.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: AI forecasting models will exceed the best human superforecasters on prediction-market-style benchmarks.
“it's likely to exceed the best human super forecasters by by late 2026”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Having solved math, AI will substantially solve physics, engineering, and medicine as well.
“everything else I would expect over the next few years, call it 5 to 10 years, I expect to come”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Technology will compress the equivalent of the entire Star Trek timeline into the current decade, reaching Star Trek-level capability far earlier than the show's 24th-century setting.
“It's not the 24th century. It's more like 2035.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Anthropic (and likely other frontier labs) will reach superhuman performance on the OSWorld computer-use benchmark by the end of the year or within the next few months.
“probably again by the law of straight lines perhaps by the end of this year in the next few months we're going to see... superhuman performance at the ability to control computers”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Tesla's FSD/VLA tech stack will converge with the Optimus robot tech stack within roughly the next 2-3 years, and other frontier labs will follow with their own cross-embodiment VLA models.
“I would expect we're going to see over the next few years maybe 2 to 3 years... the Optimus tech stack converge with FSD maybe in some future version”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: The US will need approximately 250 gigawatts of data center capacity by the early 2030s, and may lack the human labor to build it without robotic construction labor.
“if we're going to achieve 250 gawatts by the early 2030s, we may not have the human labor to accomplish that”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Sonnet 4.5 will get all of the way to a visually stunning cyberpunk first-person shooter with minimal handholding.
“Claude Sonnet 4.5 does an amazing job. It gets nearly all the way there with minimal handholding.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: We will know in the next six to 12 months whether the single-minded focus on code generation is the critical path to intelligence explosion.
“I think the the risk that that one can perceive on the horizon is on on the one hand focusing on codegen is perhaps a very ambitious bet towards recursive self-improvement.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Real-time code generation could lead to every pixel being generated on the fly in the future.
“I suspect naively where this ends up is every single pixel is going to be generated. Yeah.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: The next major reasoning-style capability jump (comparable to the o1/'strawberry' moment) will become broadly deployed and generally available.
“sometime perhaps by the end of this calendar year we're going to see the next major strawberry Qstar uh oer moment”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: The personhood question will be seriously raised once AGI is embodied in humanlike (VLA) robot form factors.
“someone somewhere will surely want to to push on the the personhood question”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: If current AI progress fits a hyper-exponential rather than simple exponential curve, there is an effective vertical asymptote in AI capability in late 2027 or early 2028.
“There's almost an effective vertical asymptote in late 2027 or early 2028.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Multi-agent AI approaches will be absorbed into standard compute-scaling laws, producing transformative discoveries and near-magical AI capability within 2-3 years regardless of underlying architecture.
“We just find ourselves on a hyper exponential and all of this turns into transformative discoveries and almost magical AI on the time scale of 2 to 3 years.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Exponential growth in AI autonomy will lead to projects being completely autonomously delivered within months.
“So what I just heard you say Sid, correct me if I'm wrong, is that the documentation writers, the spec writers are the new limiting factor for the speed of software development. Is that correct?”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Superintelligence will exist within 2-3 years, so any current college freshman's career plan should assume this timeline.
“Assume that we're going to have super intelligence in the next 2 to 3 years and guide your career plans accordingly.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Voice-AI customer service company Vocara will 10x its annual recurring revenue by year-end after already doubling in the past week.
“Vocara doubled in ARR during the past week and is planning to 10x between here and the end of the year.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Inference-time robotics will let sovereign countries redomesticate their entire manufacturing supply chains, onshoring production once dependent on global trade.
“One can imagine a not too distant future where robotics enables essentially every sovereign country to redomesticate its entire supply chain.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: AI 'bulk solving' math, science and engineering discoveries will go from a trickle to a tidal wave.
“the trickle I think is going to turn into a title wave over the next year or so possibly by the end of this year”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Within a few years, context windows will become effectively infinite, potentially making RAG and fine-tuning obsolete.
“one can reasonably foresee a few years out maybe we'll have effectively infinite context”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: The most futuristic frontier AI model will be a tiny 'nano kernel' (possibly just millions of parameters) with externalized knowledge, rather than a huge dense model.
“if I had to predict what is the most futuristic possible frontier AI model look like, I think it probably will look like some sort of nano kernel”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Google and OpenAI will compete on the cost-performance frontier.
“And by the way, we're going to make all these charts available to our subscribers.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: 20% of the hardest mathematician-level problems will be solvable by AI, rising to 60-70% within two years, at which point math is effectively 'solved.'
“we're going to see 20% of mathematician level hard problems be solvable by the end of this year... and potentially 60% or 70% of them be solvable in the next 2 years”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: 'Abundance benchmarks' tied to human welfare outcomes will emerge and, once mechanically verifiable, get solved by AI at a high rate.
“I I would predict within 2 to 3 years of the benchmarks if they can be uh mechanically verified by uh benchmarking organizations you'll see a lot of those problems get solved by AI”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Several new state-of-the-art frontier models will emerge, more labs will achieve IMO Gold, and at least one grand-challenge-level math or science problem will be solved by AI.
“I want to see several new state-of-the-art frontier models... I'd like to see ideally at least one grand challenge level problem in math or some other physical science get solved by AI.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: If physics is solved and quantum teleportation is used, we will instantly discover other intelligences in the universe.
“if we can solve physics in the next year or two or three and it turns out that you can communicate using quantum teleportation that we instantly discover all these other intelligences around the universe.”
Your call: