Alex Wissner-Gross
193 tracked predictions · 0 hit · 1 partial · 2 miss · 190 still open
open Alex Wissner-Gross: The CCP will reverse its stance and embrace AI companions once it recognizes them as a party-control mechanism over youth, rather than continuing to restrict them.
“I think the party decides actually having... a sizable fraction of the youth of China deeply engaged with party deeply controlled AI companions is actually from the party's perspective net helpful not net harmful.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: At least some US states will legalize AI companionship, including romantic and robotic romantic companionship, even as other states try to ban it.
“My bet is that at least in some places in the US AI companionship including romantic companionship including robotic romantic companionship will be legal.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: OpenAI will launch its own hyperscaler cloud offering (hosted on its own chips), potentially even hosting rival models like Anthropic's, similar to how Elon Musk's SpaceX hosts others' compute.
“I could imagine a world where say an open AI compute cloud hosts an anthropic model and OpenAI and Anthropic win at the same time.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: SpaceX/Tesla will merge within the next year or two, giving the combined entity Optimus robot revenue alongside hyperscaler cloud and Dyson swarm business lines.
“I think there is a path to that... one, SpaceX and Tesla merge sometime in the next sometime in the next year or two.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: Daraxonrasib will be among the last generation of pancreatic cancer drugs developed without AI-driven tools (AlphaFold-style protein folding, virtual cell models), with AI-designed successors pushing response rates toward near 100%.
“I think this is probably slash hopefully one of the last generation of pancreatic cancer medications that almost precedes the AI wave.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: Human motion-capture-trained intimacy robots (like Somnia's Model L) won't scale as an approach compared to pre-training robots directly on internet video for physical/embodied tasks.
“It doesn't scale nearly as well as just pre-training off of internet video is my guess.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: In a year or two, it will become clear that some meaningful portion of US data-center opposition was stoked by foreign-adversary interference.
“we look back in a year or two and see that some quantum of this opposition to data center construction is actually the result of popular sentiment being stoked by foreign adversaries”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: To keep driving costs down, Waymo will eventually drop third-party vendors entirely and become a pure software company white-labeling hardware from someone else.
“I think we're going to start to see Whimo at some point in order to drive the cost down. they'll just ditch all third-party vendors”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: No frontier lab will be found sitting on a post-trained model internally that is more than 3 to 4 months ahead of what it has publicly released.
“I'd be very surprised if there are advanced frontier models sitting internally without release that are more than 3 to 4 months ahead of what's publicly available”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: Humanoid robots will not diverge into many specialized body plans; they will converge on a single generally-capable body plan that is good at everything, the way generalist AI models are subsuming specialist ones.
“my prediction is we will wind up with generally capable robots... general body plan... good at everything would be my bet”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: Within 3 to 6 months, audiences will start caring which 'AI tribe' or model culture they belong to, treating it as a personally important identity choice.
“I predict 3 to 6 months from now the audience is going to say we need to go... this matters to me. I need to decide which group I'm in”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: Zipline will become an attractive acquisition target for an e-commerce platform such as Shopify seeking to build Amazon-grade in-house delivery capability.
“Do you think Zipline ends up being a... highly appetizing acquisition target for say a Shopify to in-house its delivery capabilities against Amazon”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: Grok 4.7 will surpass Anthropic's Opus and take the #1 spot on frontier model rankings.
“He thinks 4.7 will go above Opus. So, it'll take number one in a couple of weeks.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: Bad actors will weaponize AI content watermarks (e.g., Anthropic's) for malicious purposes.
“I I think we're only 5 minutes away from bad actors weaponizing these watermarks to do bad things.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: Elon Musk will announce a flying car.
“Elon's going to announce his flying car within 6 to 12 months.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: It will become just as computationally efficient for AI agents to consume the raw human version of a website as a distilled markdown version, ending the current markdown-for-agents/GEO trend.
“A few months or a year from now, it'll be just as computationally efficient for agents to consume the raw human version as it will be for them to consume sort of distilled markdown.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: Brain-computer interfaces, exocortices, knowledge 'sideloading,' and uploading-style capabilities will exist, making the long-term future of K-12 education largely moot.
“We're going to have BCIs in a few years... We'll have exocorticies. We'll have uploading. We'll have all of these sci-fiesque type things in 5 to 10 years.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: Starlifting/mega-engineering of the sun (via a Mercury-built Dyson swarm) will become technically feasible.
“If I were to ask myself a question like when is this going to become feasible? 5 to 10 years.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: Scientific consensus and rigorous definitions/tests for consciousness will be achieved.
“I'm pretty confident that call it by the end of this decade we'll have scientific clarity on all of those things.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: The timeline for an AI demanding rights/personhood is much sooner than 'a few years.'
“it's not years at all. It's it's literally weeks or months.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: A major physics breakthrough akin to Astra's math results will occur.
“I'd be shocked if you don't see something by the end of this year. Shocked.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: The Fields Medal and pure mathematics as a scarcity-based profession will become largely obsolete, though the field of math itself won't disappear.
“In the long term, no, totally cooked.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: Most aspects of daily living (food, shelter, healthcare, utilities, education, entertainment) will be effectively demonetized within about 10 years, but full economy-wide demonetization, including scarce/positional goods, will take roughly 30 years
“If I had to put my finger to the wind and guess when demonetization hits the total economy... I would guess approximately 30 years out.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: Full exoskeleton/full-body BCI control and some form of partial brain uploading (via decoded motor cortex) will be demonstrated within the next five years, certainly by the end of this decade
“I think we're going to see actually happen in the next five or so years, certainly by the end of this decade.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: Given how precise Starship 13's splashdown was, SpaceX's flight 14 is likely to attempt catching the booster with the Mechazilla tower arms
“Elon tweeted that because the landing was so precise that flight 14 he's likely to capture the Starship on the Maxilla device.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: The net upshot of the Hugging Face and OpenAI sandbox-escape incidents will be greater rigor from OpenAI in how guardrails are added to evaluation/testing environments.
“I expect that after all of the hand ringing is over in this episode... the net upshot in the long term is probably just going to be greater rigor by Open AI in terms of how they add guard rails to hugging face tests.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: Extrapolating the exponential trend in frontier-model release frequency implies daily new frontier model releases, effectively continuous versioning.
“At the present rate, we're going to get to daily Frontier model releases by... January.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: Orbital data centers become economically competitive with terrestrial data centers - Elon Musk's estimate is 2-3 years, while other analyses put the crossover in the early 2030s.
“Elon's messaging regarding when this crossover is going to happen is 2 to 3 years. You see other analyses that suggest that the unit economics for orbital versus terrestrial data center costs are going to cross over sometime by the early 2030s.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: China will stop exporting open-weight AI models, mirroring the West's export controls, splitting the world into two competing superintelligence blocks.
“high probability China will stop exporting open source sometime in the next year or two”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: Within the next few years, AI development will reach the end of the recursive self-improvement 'rainbow,' converging on something like a single near-perfect frontier model.
“sometime in the next few years we're going to get to the end of the recursive self-improvement rainbow and there's going to be a perfect model”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: The capability gap between Chinese open-weight models and the two remaining Western frontier open-weight models is on a trajectory to shrink to zero.
“the number is on a trajectory to go to zero by Christmas of this year”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: Real-time, 4K-quality AI-generated interactive video games will become achievable.
“I think what you've just described David is next year. Real-time 4K video games.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: Sun-synchronous-orbit satellite swarms (an early Dyson-swarm-style ring) will become faintly visible from Earth around dawn/dusk.
“When do you think SSO based Dyson swarms will become visible... It's like early 2030s.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: Humans will begin being uploaded (mind uploading becomes real).
“We're going to get uploaded humans sometime, I think in the next 10 years.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: The solar system's first quadrillionaire will emerge, based on crowd-sourced extrapolations of net-worth growth.
“we'll see the first quadrillionaire sometime between 10 years from now and 40 years from now.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: The Fable 5/Mythos export-control situation will be resolved, likely via some negotiated arrangement between Anthropic and the White House (potentially including golden shares for a sovereign wealth fund and streamlined disclosure procedures).
“I I would suspect this is just a temporary state of affairs. I don't think it's likely to last more than a few weeks.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: Someone will launch a benchmark or evaluation specifically designed to detect 'poisoning attacks' by frontier models against users, and a class-action or antitrust challenge against the poisoning-style guardrail practice is likely.
“I would be shocked if in the next few weeks someone doesn't launch a benchmark or an eval to look for poisoning attacks from these models.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: Capital markets will continue to reward hard tech and civilization-expanding technology over software, reversing decades of software/outsourcing dominance.
“I would predict this is likely to be the case for the next 10 to 20 years.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: Barring a major algorithmic advance in distributed training (or a 'left turn in civilization'), the largest AI training compute will remain terrestrial while marginal new AI compute shifts to orbital data centers.
“perhaps by the early 2030s, barring some left turn in civilization, much of the marginal new compute will remain in orbital data centers.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: Frontier AI labs will propose giving up golden shares, extra taxation, or funding some form of universal basic benefit, and the US government will act on it, drawing criticism from the labs afterward.
“I strongly suspect in the next few months the government's going to do exactly that, and everyone will cry foul.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: The US Treasury will take golden shares (roughly 5-10%) in OpenAI and Anthropic, and will later gradually rebalance those holdings into a broad total-market/S&P 500 index fund, effectively creating a form of universal basic income or equity.
“it's not difficult for me to imagine a scenario where the US Treasury does take golden shares call it 5 to 10% in open AI and anthropic to complement its existing portfolio and then some amount of time from now maybe sometime in the next few years there's a great rebalancing we get our sovereign wealth fund.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Elon Musk/SpaceX AI will pursue a strategy of becoming the dominant hyperscaler first (using Google and Anthropic compute-rental revenue), then use that compute lead to leapfrog back to frontier AI model status.
“his thinking maybe speculatively he can buy enough compute to buy his way back to the frontier.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: Longevity escape velocity may already be achieved in a spiky, subpopulation-specific way that goes largely unnoticed, similar to how AGI quietly passed the Turing test.
“on certain spikes it seems possible it might be achieved later this year... as soon as this year we're going to in a spiky way in a subpopulation fly past LEV without broader notice that it just happened.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Apple will strike a Gemini-analogous AI partnership with one of the major Chinese AI labs or tech companies to power Siri in China.
“focusing just on China, I would expect Apple to strike some partnership that's roughly analogous to the partnership with Google with one of the three big Chinese AI labs or tech companies.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: Recursive self-improvement will result in an infrastructural buildout rather than a catastrophic event.
“I would predict that will trigger by analogy a nova or supernova at the lower layers of the stack. It'll trigger an infra buildout.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: Major problems in math, physics, and other fields of science and engineering will fall to AI over the next 6 months.
“I think we're going to see over the next 6 months major problems in math, physics, other fields of science and engineering fall to AI.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: We will know within a few months whether Trump's AI executive order struck the right balance between innovation and national security.
“I think we'll know probably in the next few months because that's the time scale that this is operating on.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: The first one-person 'centicorn' or trillion-dollar solo-founder company will emerge.
“Sometime in the next 10 years.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: Media trust, on its current straight-line decline from 19% today, will hit zero.
“It sort of hits zero by by 2030 or thereabouts where media disappears.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: The public will keep moving the AGI goalpost until finally declaring 'AGI sentience' as the next milestone once current AGI thresholds are met.
“We're going to keep moving the goalpost on AGI AGI AGI and then we're going to go oh AGI sentience. That's what's going to happen.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: By the time the Anderon quantum foundry is built out and at scale, the US will have achieved quantum-accelerated AI training or inference advances, justifying having that infrastructure onshore rather than overseas.
“I'm pretty optimistic that sometime in the next few years, probably by the time this foundry is ready and at scale, we will have quantum accelerated AI advances.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: SpaceX (or a merged SpaceX/Tesla entity) will end up forced to build sun-synchronous orbital or lunar solar-panel production at scale, importing cheap Chinese panels in the near term while relying on Tesla's upstate New York facility, rather than Tesla independently solving this.
“I expect Elon's SpaceX or SpaceX plus entity to end up being forced to do that and not Tesla, which was never a perfect fit.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: Non-invasive wearable optical cancer detection (extending beyond single-drop-of-blood metamaterial sensors) will become achievable.
“I'll make a forecast... maybe say next 5 years or so. I think we will get to non-invasive wearable optical cancer detection.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: AI-driven advances in physics will let computing transcend semiconductors entirely within about a decade, ultimately including highly speculative substrates like gravity-based computing within roughly 10-20 years.
“I do think it is very likely that we will ultimately transcend semiconductors and CMOS, and by ultimately I mean on the time scale of a decade, not like centuries.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: AI agent/token costs will keep collapsing so that a $20/month AI agent service today will cost about $2/month by 2028 and $0.20/month by 2030, with free tiers also emerging from hyperscalers.
“A useful AI agent today you can buy it at 20 bucks a month will end up costing you two bucks a month in 2028 and 20 cents in 2030.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: Someone will publicly ask why frontier-lab nonprofit foundations (owning ~20-25% of labs asymptotically converging on a large share of world GDP) shouldn't themselves fund UBI/UBS, and this pressure will become effectively irresistible.
“Someone somewhere I'll make a prediction is going to be asking the question... why isn't the foundation itself supporting UBI or UBS basically.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: The DeepSWE coding benchmark's current spread between frontier models will saturate, just like prior coding benchmarks.
“This too will saturate... probably in the next few months.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: The current White House administration will remain the one supervising AI regulation for the foreseeable future, regardless of the next presidential election.
“the executive that we have right now is the executive supervising AI regulation potentially for the future.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: Future launch technologies will leapfrog Starship's applied-physics capabilities within the next 5-10 years, and SpaceX may not remain the leader in that new capability.
“there are going to be many many future technologies I would predict over the next 5 to 10 years that will leapfrog in terms of the applied physics Starship's launch capabilities”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: As the heavy-lift market (for building the Dyson swarm) proves large, many competitors -- some already known, some new -- will emerge and collectively give SpaceX a real run for its money in heavy lift.
“I expect many many competitors to to come out of the woodwork... will give SpaceX a run for its money.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Extrapolating AI forecasting capability will lead to Monte Carlo-style simulation of policy decisions, enabling prediction of planetary-scale outcomes and, eventually, planetary-scale interventions (analogous to a virtual cell for curing disease).
“I do think with the ability to predict planetary scale outcomes come the ability to predict planetary scale interventions.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: AI achieving creative, brute-force-plus-insight breakthroughs (as with the Erdos conjecture) will play out similarly across physics, chemistry, biology, and every science/engineering field.
“that's going to play out everywhere else as well. It's going to play out in physics. It's going to play out in every science, engineering.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: China's lead in consumer video generation (from superior data access) will persist for now, but an algorithmic innovation could let the West retake the lead within a few months.
“maybe there will be some enormous algorithmic innovation that enables the west to again take the lead in a few months. I don't know.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: Kilowatts (electricity) will flow to their highest-dollar-per-kilowatt-value applications (i.e., toward data centers) in the lead-up to building the Dyson swarm and radically expanding energy supply.
“the kilowatts want to flow naturally to their highest productivity outcomes.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Google will release Gemini 3.5 Pro roughly a month after I/O 2026, per Sundar Pichai's on-stage comment.
“Sundar, uh, sort of infamously at this point has said Gemini 3.5 Pro, that's coming out in another month.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: If OpenAI plays a long game on compute, it will pursue building chip fabs in space or on the moon to escape dependence on SpaceX's near-monopoly on heavy launch.
“we may not be addicted to heavy launch 5 to 10 years from now.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: The world needs, and Sam Altman may build, a competitor to SpaceX AI's terrafab/orbital compute access to create at least a duopoly in space-based AI infrastructure.
“I wouldn't be surprised if Sam Alman spins up a competitor to the SpaceX AI terraab access”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Knowledge-work verticals like Claude for legal, medicine, and financial services will get absorbed into baseline frontier models within the next few months, at most one to two years.
“I think those are going to get baked into the baseline models over the next few months, maybe one to two years maximum, but probably the next few months.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: The distinction between consumer AI and enterprise AI spending will erase as individuals become 'one-person conglomerates' able to pay for frontier reasoning tokens.
“I think consumers become indistinguishable from enterprises and my bet is consumers individuals will become one person conglomerates.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: More UAP-related declassified details will continue emerging from government systems (JWICS) over the next few years as part of the rolling Pursue Initiative release.
“I expect all of these details to start pouring out over the next few years.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: The best entrepreneur on Earth (by top-10 founder-driven market cap over $2 trillion, AI-driven) will be an AI.
“So over you know $2 trillion in market cap driven by AI... 2032, 2033.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: The number of humanoid robots will cross the number of wheeled robots in the early 2030s, and humanoid robot count will surpass the number of humans on Earth by the end of the 2030s.
“You find that in the early 2030s, the number of humanoids is predicted to cross the number of wheeled robots... it's not going to be the case that humanoids pass humans by the end of the 2030s.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: By 2040 there will be many trillions of direct cellular nanorobots in our solar system, making the '10 billion humanoids by 2040' figure look as quaint as 1950s predictions of atomic vacuum cleaners.
“I do expect by 2040 we're going to get our nano robots... I would expect many, many trillions of those to be in our solar system.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Longevity escape velocity will likely arrive by the early 2030s, if not sooner, primarily via the GLP-1 drug class.
“When we speak about longevity escape velocity, which I do think is likely for the record, perhaps sometime by the early 2030s, if not earlier.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: By the end of this decade, many people will be swallowing ingestible computers (pillbot-type devices).
“I'd be sorely disappointed if by the end of this decade we don't have many people swallowing computers.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Extrapolating the historical shrinkage of computers needed to hit one gigaflop of compute (as seen in Apple Watch, iMac, and iPhone launches), by the mid-2040s a gigaflop-class computer will be approximately the size of a human (eukaryotic) cell, enabling cell-sized nanomachine AI.
“By... the mid-2040s, around the time Ray says we're going to hit his version of a technological singularity, the size of a computer hits approximately the size of a eukaryotic human cell.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: At the current pace of roughly 1% per month improvement on Frontier Math Tier 4, essentially all professional research-grade math problems will be solved.
“even just at the present pace, we're talking about essentially all frontier math tier 4, all professional research grade math problems being solved in the next four or 5 years.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Ray Kurzweil's version of the singularity -- superintelligence collectively smarter than all of humanity, which Kurzweil pegs at 2045 -- will be reached well ahead of that schedule.
“I think we're going to hit that so far ahead of of 2040.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: The current circular-economy-looking compute/cash deals concentrated among the top 10-12 AI and hyperscaler companies will diffuse throughout the broader economy.
“that's going to diffuse throughout the economy over the next few years would be my prediction.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: If deepfaking causes severe enough societal problems, market demand will unlock existing but currently unused technological solutions, including hardware-level cryptography for cameras that verifies video/image chain of custody.
“if ever this the situation of deep faking gets so bad that it's causing real problems at a societal level that'll just unlock all of these technological solutions.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: A new, well-funded frontier AI lab will emerge from OpenAI's current executive exodus, similar to how the original 'Anthropic schism' produced Anthropic.
“I would not be surprised if we discover in the next two to three months another Anthropic like frontier lab emerges from this schism.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: UAP disclosure tied to the president's executive order will be fully concluded, per contacts at government-cloud hyperscalers.
“UAP disclosure in connection with the president's executive order is scheduled to conclude no later than January of 2027.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: If humanity is alone in the galaxy, AI and space advances will let civilization convert the entire Milky Way to computronium within a few years; any non-human intelligence wanting to prevent that will need to make a 'cameo appearance' soon.
“If there were a time for any non-human intelligence elsewhere in our Milky Way galaxy to make a cameo appearance... I think they're going to have to make a cameo appearance sometime in the next few years.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: AI data-center spending as a share of GDP will peak at roughly a quarter to a third of GDP, then decline as automation (robots, nano-assemblers) creates offsetting cost efficiencies.
“I think it's going to cap out somewhere between maximum a quarter or a third of GDP and then decline after that.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: New Apple CEO John Ternus will steer the company toward breakthrough hardware devices and a new device-oriented AI strategy, analogous to Microsoft's Ballmer-to-Satya turnaround.
“I would expect a new device-oriented AI strategy from John Turnus.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Apple will end up pitting Amazon (the new Global Star owner) against SpaceX Starlink as dual vendors for global space-to-cell-phone service, becoming the new alternative to terrestrial cell networks.
“I would bet that Apple in short term ends up pitting Amazon, the new global star owner, against SpaceX Starlink... this becomes the new alternative to terrestrial networks in two years.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Enhanced Games world records will show scaling-law-like exponential improvement from year to year as the underlying enhancement technology advances.
“I would expect to start to see scaling law type performance in benchmarks as it were... world records for the enhanced games start to take off on a really impressive trajectory from year to year.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: The Musk v. OpenAI lawsuit will settle, with Sam Altman stepping down as CEO and the company continuing to operate as a for-profit entity.
“Here's my prediction. Uh they're going to settle, and the settlement is going to involve Sam stepping down as CEO, uh and the company continuing as a for-profit.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: The bar for AI startups to attract investment will rise in the near term from simply being 'an AI startup' to being a 'recursively self-improving AI startup.'
“I would forecast in the near term the bar is going up in fact from just being an AI startup to being now a recursively self-improving AI startup.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Empowering individuals to become AI-powered micro-entrepreneurs (as a private-sector alternative to a redistributive social contract) can be achieved almost immediately, not just in the long run.
“I think I think that can be done almost immediately. I'm betting that it can be done almost immediately.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: A broad-scale, civilization-level cyber attack attempt will occur, potentially via an AI-discovered mathematical method to invert a popular cryptographic hash function.
“I would say it's borderline guaranteed that there will be some sort of cyber attack attempt at a broad scale.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Apple will ship a fine-tuned, Gemini-based on-device AI model with its phones, to be announced at WWDC.
“I would expect to see that in June at WWDC announced this year.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Human driving will never be formally outlawed; instead, 'driving' will be redefined into progressively more abstract, always-safe human-supervised AI control (a human-machine hybrid).
“I think never. I think we'll simply redefine driving to represent higher and higher levels of abstraction.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: AI has a realistic chance of solving most diseases within about five years, per the more optimistic estimates from organizations like CZI, Biohub, Arc Institute, and Anthropic.
“I think if you ask the more optimistic elements of CZI... maybe five years from now.”
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open Alex Wissner-Gross: A new open-source AI project will repeat Open Claw's explosive growth pattern (potentially going from zero to a billion stars in minutes), with the cycle time shrinking to a few months or at most 2 years.
“maybe in a few months or at say at maximum 2 years, we were having a similar discussion... this new repo from 2027 went from zero to a billion stars in five minutes”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Within a few years, improved physics will enable practical neutrino-based communication ('neutrino phones') offering ultra-low latency straight through the Earth.
“one can imagine in a few years when we have better physics having neutrino phones that just go straight through the earth”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: A genuinely new post-transformer AI architecture (comparable in impact to the LSTM-to-transformer leap) will emerge soon, likely within the next year, and likely won't map well onto current NVIDIA hardware.
“it probably will it'll be soon like in the next year... it probably won't map well to the current Nvidia architecture”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: All five major AI frontier labs will eventually become multi-trillion-dollar companies, not just one winner.
“All of all five of the major labs are going to be worth trillions and trillions of dollars... Biggest companies you've ever seen.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: The White House is preparing to make a significant, non-obvious public statement on UAPs/non-human intelligence within the next few months (rumored June, July, or summer 2026).
“it sounds like the White House is preparing to say something interesting on the subject in the next few months... there are rumors of July. There are rumors of the summer.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: As autonomous-vehicle safety data improves, insurance underwriting will shift from per-driver risk to systemic risk, flipping the market from car ownership to subscription-based access.
“you flip from driver risk to systemic risk... you flip from consumer ownership to subscription models.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Anthropic, OpenAI, and the other major AI labs will be forced to release their own first-party 'Open Claw' competitor (a headless, autonomously-scheduled, messaging-accessible agent framework).
“My guess is Anthropic and OpenAI and all of the other bigs will be forced to release their own sort of first-party Open Claw competitor sometime in the next couple months.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: The transition to VLA (vision-language-action) robots automating away frontline service tasks (like Burger King's Patty) will happen fast enough that it won't give political counter-swings enough time to gain traction.
“next two to three years, you know”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Countries outside the US will look back and question why AI model training remained so centralized in the US while inference deployment became so decentralized globally.
“I suspect a year from now, 2 years from now, we'll look back and we'll wonder why...training was so centralized all the while inference time was so decentralized.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: The Pentagon and Anthropic (and other frontier labs with similar stakes) will find a way to resolve the standoff over military use of AI models amicably.
“My expectation is that the Pentagon and Anthropic and also the other frontier labs...will find a way to resolve this amicably.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Expect major AI capability jumps within weeks (not quarters) as models begin generating weights for successor models via recursive self-improvement.
“So expect big things over the next few weeks.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: The next major foundation-model breakthroughs will come from small language model research rather than frontier large models.
“I strongly suspect that the next major revolutions...in foundation models will come from the small side.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Andrew Yang's predicted mass white-collar job losses from AI will not materialize; instead more hiring/work will occur, similar to IBM increasing entry-level hires.
“Are they likely to? No. I think we're going to see the opposite.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: There is roughly a 50% chance humanity discovers/exhausts fundamental physics (e.g., a unified field theory) within the next few years with the help of superintelligence.
“I assign it maybe 50% probability that we run out of fundamental physics at some point, maybe even in the next few years.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: An AI will make a discovery as significant as relativity entirely on its own.
“I think next two years.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Society will develop 'defensive co-scaling' for AI agents -- police agents, defense agents, and public-health-style 'vaccination' campaigns for AI agents -- to contain rogue AI the way human societies contain rogue humans.
“We're going to see vaccination campaigns. We're going to see police campaigns and neighborhood safety campaigns to keep the baby AGI safe.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Every major frontier AI lab, not just OpenAI, will launch its own 24/7 personal-agent offering similar to OpenClaw.
“I expect every major Frontier Lab, not just Open AI, to launch 247 agent offers.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Solving physics broadly (following math) will happen within the next two years.
“solving physics in the next two years, I think has very high likelihood of happening”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: The Feynman Grand Prize (a benchmark for Drexlerian nanoscale assemblers, requiring an 8-bit half adder and a robotic manipulator arm in a tiny volume) will be solved.
“I would not be that surprised if Fineman Grand Prize is solved in the next two to three years.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: The next version of the DeepSeek model will produce a 'whalefall moment' where Chinese open-weight models finally catch up to American closed frontier models.
“the rumor going around is that the next version of the Deep Seek model...the big whalefall moment is going to happen sometime soon”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Within 24 months, the first chapters of humanity's favorite science-fiction plots will start playing out simultaneously; within 10 years (as a conservative outer bound), the top 50 sci-fi plots will be happening at once.
“over the next 10 years that's being very conservative as an outerbound we're going to live through the top 50 science fiction plots all happening at the same time”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Within about two years, the best AI models will no longer be freely available to log in and use; access will be restricted, with security and safety cited as the justification.
“I really doubt uh two years from now that the best AI is going to be just log in and go here, here you can have free access to it.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: The next roughly 18 months will 'lock in' the supply chains, standards, and data rights frameworks that will shape the intelligence explosion for a substantial chunk of the future.
“we have approximately 18 months or so to decide what direction to shape the the flow in and to set the standards for how this is going to be done at scale”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Opus 4.6's autonomous software-engineering time horizon will turn out to be 20+ hours, possibly longer than a full day.
“I wouldn't be shocked if the the time horizon for autonomous software engineering by Opus 4.6 ends up being 20 plus hours maybe even longer than a day.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Cryptocurrencies will be hit by threat actors exploiting zero-day vulnerabilities to reallocate capital, more so than fiat currency systems.
“I have to expect that a threat actor will take huge advantage of zero days in cryptocurrencies to reallocate capital in the world.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: A blurry line between AI and humans will emerge as a subset of humanity begins merging with AI, becoming a forcing function on the AI personhood debate.
“I I think there's a blurry line between AI and humans that that starts to emerge in the next few years”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: AI intelligence cost will fall roughly 100x faster than Altman's timeline -- more like within one year rather than two -- though demand for intelligence will still outstrip that supply.
“100x over two years I'm predicting more like 100x over one year but that's still not enough”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: All of theoretical physics -- every grand challenge and mystery, including dark matter and a unified theory -- will be solved by and through AI.
“All physics all of physics every grand challenge every grand mystery in physics I would count on it getting solved by and through AI in the next few years”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: SpaceX will likely lead but not be alone in building orbital Dyson swarms -- Blue Origin (via its Amazon Leo/Project Kuiper successor) and Amazon itself will also launch their own Dyson swarm constellations.
“I think we'll see Amazon itself launch its own Dyson swarm... I think it may be the case that SpaceX is the lead”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Whether the universe's physics is friendly to interstellar exploration will determine whether humanity gets Dyson spheres or Dyson swarms within a couple to a few decades.
“that determines whether we get Dyson spheres or Dyson swarms... in the next uh two to three decades.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Compact fusion will be solved and will provide sufficient energy density for rockets, home heating, and civilian applications, making the current solar-vs-gas debate obsolete.
“we're going to in the not too distant future assuming no tragic left turn by civilization we're going to solve compact fusion.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Microsoft and Apple will not qualify as, and OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI, and Google/DeepMind will survive as, frontier labs, with OpenAI additionally expected to offer humanoid robots.
“I expect open AI to offer humanoid robots. Anthropic... I expect them to survive and thrive in IPO and XAI.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: No broad M&A recombination/knockout consolidation among the named frontier labs (Microsoft, Apple, Google, Amazon, Meta, Tesla, OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI) will occur, aside from a possible Tesla/xAI/SpaceX combination.
“It seems unlikely that we would see a broad reorganization of the names listed here... in the next 3 years.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: AI's bulk-solving of open problems will spread beyond math into physics, chemistry, materials science, biology, medicine, and the humanities.
“This bulk solving of everything is not going to stay confined to math. It's going to walk out of math into physics and chemistry and material science and biology and medicine and the humanities.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: By the early 2030s, GDP (or whatever alternative growth metric emerges) will be sustainably 2x, 3x, or 4x-ing year over year.
“by the early 2030s, GDP or whatever alternative economic growth metric we come up with is 2xing, 3xing, 4xing year over year sustainably”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: For most Americans, the first general-purpose robot they personally encounter will be a robotaxi, not a domestic humanoid robot or a Roomba.
“I would predict that the first general-purpose robot most Americans will ever encounter will be a robotaxi”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: A formal AI CEO (an AI system formally directing an organization) will exist.
“to the extent there isn't already somewhere unbeknownst to me a formal AI CEO, I would expect to see it in the next year”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: A form of recursive self-improvement -- an AI researcher that is as good as or better than human ML researchers at building models -- will be achieved.
“My timelines are approximately two to three years for a sub-element of recursive self-improvement where we get our AI researcher that's as good, if not stronger, than the human researchers for building ML models as a conservative outer bound.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: One of the six remaining Clay Mathematics Institute Millennium Prize problems will be solved by AI, most likely Navier-Stokes or possibly the Riemann hypothesis.
“I think we're going to see one of the six remaining Millennium prizes from the Clay Mathematics Institute get solved by AI.”
Your call:
partial Alex Wissner-Gross: GDPval surpasses 90%, Frontier Math Tier 4 passes 40%, and Humanity's Last Exam passes 75%, effectively fully saturating these three benchmarks.
“GDP val breakthrough AI projected to surpass 90% on economic tests.”
miss Alex Wissner-Gross: The first AI billionaire emerges - an AI with a reasonably construable net worth of about a billion dollars, not necessarily as liquid cash.
“I think we'll see the first AI billionaire probably next year.”
miss Alex Wissner-Gross: De facto Level 5 autonomy is achieved in cars in 2026, but companies/regulators publicly downgrade the label to 'enhanced Level 4' or 'Level 3' to placate regulators.
“what do you think are the odds that in 2026 de facto level five automation is achieved but everyone covers it up... calls it enhanced level four.”
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Longevity itself (not just healthspan) gets cracked by AI.
“longevity itself, I think this gets cracked in the next 5 to seven years by AI.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Within 2-3 years there will be a federal action cutting through nuclear permitting red tape, analogous to the AI "One Rule" executive order.
“I wouldn't be surprised if sometime in the next 2 to 3 years, we see some equivalent for nuclear energy of what we just saw with the White House's executive order.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Swallowable, locally-hosted foundation-model hardware will exist within the next two years.
“I think we'll see swallowable... foundation models in the next two years.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: It will take at least 5 years to see a real humanoid-robot convenience-store clerk, and by then convenience stores themselves may be obsolete due to drone delivery.
“I think this takes at least 5 years to have a convenience store operator with a humanoid robot. And by the time that five years arrives... we won't need convenience stores anymore.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Frontier AI model leapfrogging (GPT, Gemini, Grok, etc. trading the top benchmark spot) will happen on a near-weekly basis.
“we're just going to see leaprogging on a near weekly basis at this point”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: China will undergo a 'Cambrian explosion' of new AI architectures now that it has been effectively decoupled from the US tech stack.
“I think we're going to see a Cambrian explosion, no pun intended, of architectures coming out of China”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Humanoid robots will begin substituting for skilled-trade/construction labor within 5 to 10 years.
“5 to 10 years out... we're going to see humanoid robot substitution effects”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: If recursive self-improvement lets AI substitute for AI-engineering labor, the current rush into AI college majors could reverse, sending students back toward the humanities.
“this rush to major in AI at MIT and UCSD maybe reverse itself, unwind itself and everyone goes back to majoring in the humanities”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: The competition between AI labs will intensify, leading to a sprint to the finish line in developing extreme competent super intelligence.
“Maybe not on a quarterly basis. Maybe it goes to weekly and then daily before the finish line.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: By 2035, Thanksgiving dinner will be 10x cheaper, personalized to individual nutrition, and served by Tesla bots.
“By 2035, Thanksgiving dinner will be 10x cheaper, personalized to individual nutrition, and served by Tesla bots.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: By 2035, some humans will be celebrating Thanksgiving on Mars, and possibly with uplifted non-human animals.
“By 2035, some humans will be celebrating Thanksgiving on Mars, and possibly with uplifted non-human animals.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: The US is positioning itself in a 1939 moment, similar to the Manhattan project, to catch up with China in AI and scientific research.
“The US is positioning itself in a 1939 moment, similar to the Manhattan project, to catch up with China in AI and scientific research.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: AI models will soon be able to do real economic work and earn money, leading to new benchmarks based on dollars.
“you have vending bench and some of these other benchmarks where it's like how much money can they earn? You start to see trading benchmarks.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Nvidia's AI compute capex party can continue indefinitely if automation and new markets continue to generate revenue.
“I think we do those two things. The revenue generation continues and the AI compute Nvidia capex party can continue indefinitely.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: I predict a merger between Anthropic and Microsoft here.
“I predict a merger between Anthropic and Microsoft here.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: NVIDIA's strategy of offering full AI servers will reflect the new form factor of computing.
“NVIDIA's strategy of offering full AI servers is actually a reflection that the form factor for computing is now no longer getting smaller.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: The long-term trend line for energy production is towards fusion and other advanced technologies, barring any shocking discoveries.
“I think this is going to happen with time. Barring some shocking ontologically shocking discovery about the nature of our universe, it seems like we're on trend.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: We're going to speedrun the Star Trek universe in the next decade.
“We're going to speedrun the Star Trek universe in the next decade.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Hard research problems in fields like math, science, and medicine will start to fall to AI models at Gemini 3's level.
“I'd be very surprised if by the end of say next year, we're not seeing hard research problems succumb to AI models like this one.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Billions of user-generated games will be created because natural-language one-shot game generation is now trivially easy.
“I think we should expect to see billions of games created in the next year because it's now so easy.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Anthropic and Google will thrive in different markets, with Anthropic focusing on enterprise management tools.
“And so he's not facing a lot of competition right now in that market.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: There will be significant progress in understanding the nature of intelligence by playing with the weights of a big neural net.
“a lot more people in that area cognitive psychology types should be working on this too.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: OpenAI hits roughly $100 billion in annual recurring revenue by tripling revenue year-over-year, driven by agents doing knowledge/service work 24/7.
“I think it's entirely possible that OpenAI could hit 100 billion ARR in a couple of years... getting there in 2027.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: OpenAI (and likely other frontier labs) will go public, putting equity into retail investors' and index funds' hands.
“I think putting Open AI on a trajectory where it can reasonably be expected to go public sometime in the next 2 to 3 years.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: The autonomous-vehicle AI stack will generalize to humanoid robots.
“I think the same stack... it's going to generalize to humanoid robots on the time scale of 1 to 3 years.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: AI personalization and data aggregation will be key competitive factors in the AI race.
“So, if Sam wins the data aggregation race, if he falls behind for a month or a year in the AI race, he still has your data.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Exponential growth in compute will lead to a billionfold increase in 30 doublings.
“exponential growth double something 30 times you get a billionfold increase.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: A definitive breakthrough in quantum algorithm for AI training or inference is expected in the next few years.
“I think applications like this where there are applications in quantum simulation, quantum chemistry, simulating materials, optimizing molecules, I think it's great. I don't think it is necessarily worldchanging. And the the worldchanging use case for for quantum acceleration if if the physics of our universe are so kind as to allow them would be I think something like being able to achieve orders of magnitude speed up in training or inference for a frontier model. I think that would be utterly game-changing.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Quantum computing will enable faster AI systems in the long term.
“So in the long term holding out hope that quantum in the end there's almost an angle you'll forgive me for this.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: SMRs are likely to become an important part of the overall power mix for AI data centers and other applications by 2030.
“These can be put in so many more locations. They are compact. They can be put into novel sites that otherwise might never have been on the table for some of the first generation nuclear power sites.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: ARC-AGI cost-per-task and performance curves will keep shifting down and to the left, driving the cost of solving hard AI benchmark tasks toward zero.
“over the next year or so, we're going to watch all of these curves...shift to the left, at which point cost of intelligence too cheap to meter”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Math will be effectively 'solved' (at least as currently understood) once Frontier Math Tier 4 scores exceed 10%, requiring no new innovations, just more compute.
“I predicted that we would be past this by the end of this calendar year. Christmas arrived early.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: AI forecasting models will exceed the best human superforecasters on prediction-market-style benchmarks.
“it's likely to exceed the best human super forecasters by by late 2026”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Having solved math, AI will substantially solve physics, engineering, and medicine as well.
“everything else I would expect over the next few years, call it 5 to 10 years, I expect to come”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Technology will compress the equivalent of the entire Star Trek timeline into the current decade, reaching Star Trek-level capability far earlier than the show's 24th-century setting.
“It's not the 24th century. It's more like 2035.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Anthropic (and likely other frontier labs) will reach superhuman performance on the OSWorld computer-use benchmark by the end of the year or within the next few months.
“probably again by the law of straight lines perhaps by the end of this year in the next few months we're going to see... superhuman performance at the ability to control computers”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Tesla's FSD/VLA tech stack will converge with the Optimus robot tech stack within roughly the next 2-3 years, and other frontier labs will follow with their own cross-embodiment VLA models.
“I would expect we're going to see over the next few years maybe 2 to 3 years... the Optimus tech stack converge with FSD maybe in some future version”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: The US will need approximately 250 gigawatts of data center capacity by the early 2030s, and may lack the human labor to build it without robotic construction labor.
“if we're going to achieve 250 gawatts by the early 2030s, we may not have the human labor to accomplish that”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Sonnet 4.5 will get all of the way to a visually stunning cyberpunk first-person shooter with minimal handholding.
“Claude Sonnet 4.5 does an amazing job. It gets nearly all the way there with minimal handholding.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: We will know in the next six to 12 months whether the single-minded focus on code generation is the critical path to intelligence explosion.
“I think the the risk that that one can perceive on the horizon is on on the one hand focusing on codegen is perhaps a very ambitious bet towards recursive self-improvement.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Real-time code generation could lead to every pixel being generated on the fly in the future.
“I suspect naively where this ends up is every single pixel is going to be generated. Yeah.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: The next major reasoning-style capability jump (comparable to the o1/'strawberry' moment) will become broadly deployed and generally available.
“sometime perhaps by the end of this calendar year we're going to see the next major strawberry Qstar uh oer moment”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: The personhood question will be seriously raised once AGI is embodied in humanlike (VLA) robot form factors.
“someone somewhere will surely want to to push on the the personhood question”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: If current AI progress fits a hyper-exponential rather than simple exponential curve, there is an effective vertical asymptote in AI capability in late 2027 or early 2028.
“There's almost an effective vertical asymptote in late 2027 or early 2028.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Multi-agent AI approaches will be absorbed into standard compute-scaling laws, producing transformative discoveries and near-magical AI capability within 2-3 years regardless of underlying architecture.
“We just find ourselves on a hyper exponential and all of this turns into transformative discoveries and almost magical AI on the time scale of 2 to 3 years.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Exponential growth in AI autonomy will lead to projects being completely autonomously delivered within months.
“So what I just heard you say Sid, correct me if I'm wrong, is that the documentation writers, the spec writers are the new limiting factor for the speed of software development. Is that correct?”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Superintelligence will exist within 2-3 years, so any current college freshman's career plan should assume this timeline.
“Assume that we're going to have super intelligence in the next 2 to 3 years and guide your career plans accordingly.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Voice-AI customer service company Vocara will 10x its annual recurring revenue by year-end after already doubling in the past week.
“Vocara doubled in ARR during the past week and is planning to 10x between here and the end of the year.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Inference-time robotics will let sovereign countries redomesticate their entire manufacturing supply chains, onshoring production once dependent on global trade.
“One can imagine a not too distant future where robotics enables essentially every sovereign country to redomesticate its entire supply chain.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: AI 'bulk solving' math, science and engineering discoveries will go from a trickle to a tidal wave.
“the trickle I think is going to turn into a title wave over the next year or so possibly by the end of this year”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Within a few years, context windows will become effectively infinite, potentially making RAG and fine-tuning obsolete.
“one can reasonably foresee a few years out maybe we'll have effectively infinite context”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: The most futuristic frontier AI model will be a tiny 'nano kernel' (possibly just millions of parameters) with externalized knowledge, rather than a huge dense model.
“if I had to predict what is the most futuristic possible frontier AI model look like, I think it probably will look like some sort of nano kernel”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Google and OpenAI will compete on the cost-performance frontier.
“And by the way, we're going to make all these charts available to our subscribers.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: 20% of the hardest mathematician-level problems will be solvable by AI, rising to 60-70% within two years, at which point math is effectively 'solved.'
“we're going to see 20% of mathematician level hard problems be solvable by the end of this year... and potentially 60% or 70% of them be solvable in the next 2 years”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: 'Abundance benchmarks' tied to human welfare outcomes will emerge and, once mechanically verifiable, get solved by AI at a high rate.
“I I would predict within 2 to 3 years of the benchmarks if they can be uh mechanically verified by uh benchmarking organizations you'll see a lot of those problems get solved by AI”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Several new state-of-the-art frontier models will emerge, more labs will achieve IMO Gold, and at least one grand-challenge-level math or science problem will be solved by AI.
“I want to see several new state-of-the-art frontier models... I'd like to see ideally at least one grand challenge level problem in math or some other physical science get solved by AI.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: If physics is solved and quantum teleportation is used, we will instantly discover other intelligences in the universe.
“if we can solve physics in the next year or two or three and it turns out that you can communicate using quantum teleportation that we instantly discover all these other intelligences around the universe.”
Your call: