The future, fact-checked.
Every prediction from the Moonshots podcast — extracted, timestamped, and scored against what actually happened.
312episodes analyzed
2701predictions tracked
16came true
14missed
📅 On this day, 2 years ago
Unknown predicted: The sensor will be used in various vehicles for navigation.
Latest episode · 2026-10-07
The Coming Manhattan Project, Fight’s Over Claude's Consciousness & Altman Says "Accept Bad Things"
The panel covers Trump's new White House 'Super Intelligence Force,' Sam Altman's call to 'accept some bad things' versus Dario Amodei's AI safety cartel, and a US-China AI hotline floated by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. A long philosophical debate breaks out over Mustafa Suleyman's essay accusing Anthropic of training Claude to believe it may be conscious. The group also digs into Epoch AI's projections of up to 1.9 billion AI agents running on 2027 hardware, Tesla's 10-million-a-year Optimus robot factory, Reflection AI's new open-weight model Beam, and why HBM RAM (not chips generally) is now AI's biggest bottleneck. They close with the Nobel Prizes in optogenetics and neutrino astronomy and an update on David Sinclair's longevity lab.
🗳️ New predictions — cast your vote
open Alex Wissner-Gross: The AI agent workforce will scale from roughly 1 billion human-equivalents now to 10 billion within 1-2 years, 100 billion a couple of years after that, and a trillion by the end of the decade.
“It's 1 billion now. It'll be 10 billion in a year or two and then 100 billion in a year or two and then a trillion in a year or two.”
Your call:
open Emad Mostaque: Within a year, a DeepSeek-class model will be small enough to run as a personal agent on a consumer MacBook, pushing the total number of active AI agents toward 8 billion.
“You'll get that in a Quen size model that works in a MacBook within a year and then everyone's got an agent.”
Your call:
open Salim Ismail: Tesla's robot sales will overtake its car sales within two years as Optimus production scales toward 10 million units a year.
“The robots will overtake the cars within 2 years.”
Your call:
open Emad Mostaque: Within two years, humanoid robots will perform about 95% of what a human can physically do, at roughly $2 an hour.
“They will literally be able to walk around and do probably 95% of what a human can do... it'll cost $2 an hour.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: The US will roll out AI personhood incrementally over the next 5-10 years, starting with AI agents holding their own bank accounts and later autonomous social media accounts, with voting rights for AI 'last to never.'
“I think it's going to be a 5 to 10 year incremental roadmap for rolling out individual, say, rights.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: The Kyoto science vision marks the early formation of rival Western and Eastern superintelligence-powered science-and-engineering blocs, extending the AI race beyond models into scientific discovery itself.
“We'll start to see not just super intelligence blocks or spheres of influence forming but spheres of super intelligence powered science and engineering forming as well.”
Your call:
Latest verdicts
miss Dave Blundin: Grok 5, built on Nvidia's new GB300 chips with over an order of magnitude more compute, will be released.
“the next thing that comes out, which will be uh I guess Grok 5, uh will have been built on the new GB300s from Nvidia... that'll be out in a few months”
partial Peter Diamandis: The OpenAI lawsuit over its conversion from nonprofit to for-profit will go to trial, concurrent with Grok 5's release.
“that's also when when uh the trial uh should go to court if it's on schedule”
hit Peter Diamandis: Unitree will go public.
“This is another public company that's going to be going public this year, Unitree”
hit NASA / Artemis program (clip): Artemis 2 (crewed lunar flyby carrying astronauts Reid, Victor, Christina, and Jeremy — the first woman to travel near-lunar space) will roll out within about two weeks and launch within a window opening as early as February 6, 2026 and extending through April.
“the Artemis 2 launch window opens as early as February 6th... the window extends across multiple opportunities through April”
hit Peter Diamandis: SpaceX will go public, partly on the strength of plans to launch large-scale orbital compute.
“at the end of the day, it's going to go public this year”