Dave Blundin
137 tracked predictions · 0 hit · 1 partial · 2 miss · 134 still open
open Dave Blundin: Moonshot teams will eventually shift from mostly people-plus-money to mostly AGIs-plus-compute, though that fully-automated world 'isn't here yet.'
“there will be a world where you swap out the people and you swap in AGI's”
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open Dave Blundin: A major update to the nano-GPT speedrun world record is imminent, driven by algorithmic RSI improvements rather than new data scaling.
“You just wait for a few more days. There will be another really fun update there.”
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open Dave Blundin: US and Chinese AI delegations will hold a follow-up meeting in November 2026.
“they agreed to meet again in November”
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open Dave Blundin: Frontier AI labs will reach a cadence of one major model release per day by the end of 2026.
“One model per day by the end of this year.”
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open Dave Blundin: The AI industry will be roughly 60 gigawatts short of the energy it needs within two years.
“We're short, like, 60 gigawatts of energy in the next two years.”
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open Dave Blundin: Humanity will overcome the near-term dangers created by the AI arms race (misuse, China/Russia competition, AI-enabled weapons) within about 5 to 10 years.
“I believe that humanity will be able to overcome these risks within the next 10 years, or perhaps even within 5 years.”
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open Dave Blundin: There will be more lawyers and more software engineers in 10 years than there are today, because law scales with the coming explosion in business and startup formation.
“My hot take is there will be more lawyers in 10 years than today and more software engineers.”
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open Dave Blundin: OpenAI will need until sometime next year to show two consecutive quarters of flattering financials before it can credibly go public.
“It'll take until next year before it has two consecutive quarters of flattering financials.”
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open Dave Blundin: This year will bring on the order of 10 to 100 opportunities where AI labs directly hand people a franchise or data-collection playbook to get involved and succeed.
“I suspect that this year there'll be on the order of maybe 10 to 100 opportunities where the playbook is handed to you.”
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open Dave Blundin: The compute substrate will move to photonics, with the whole current AI infrastructure running millions of times faster within roughly the next 18 months to two years.
“I am 100% sure that the compute substrate is going to move to photonix... that's just in the next really 18 months to two years is my guess.”
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open Dave Blundin: GPU and HBM memory values will keep appreciating (rather than depreciating) until major new fab capacity (Terrafab) comes online, and may never reverse if intelligence demand keeps growing.
“I think that trend is likely to continue until at least the terapab or many terapabs come online... it may never go the other direction.”
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open Dave Blundin: Corporations that don't secure a data-center/compute plan within the next couple of months will be frozen out of AI infrastructure access for years.
“they have to have a plan for for data center and compute really in the next couple of months or they're going to be frozen out.”
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open Dave Blundin: Orin, a Link Ventures portfolio company, will announce results in the coming weeks that break every MIT entrepreneurial record for growth rate and valuation.
“they have some announcements coming up in the next couple of weeks that'll shatter all kinds of entrepreneurial records.”
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open Dave Blundin: Anthropic's 15%-GDP-growth economic forecast will prove to be a floor, not a ceiling.
“I believe this is, if anything, a lower bound.”
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open Dave Blundin: The AI-research-agent-to-human productivity ratio, currently about 3:1, will jump to roughly 300:1, 3,000:1, or even 3,000,000:1.
“It's absolutely 3:1. Sure. But it's on the tipping point of being 300, 3,000, 3 million to one imminently.”
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open Dave Blundin: Global GDP grows roughly 10x within under 10 years, driven by AI-fueled abundance.
“We're talking about 10x growth of the GDP in under 10 years.”
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open Dave Blundin: Within a few months, people will be managing tens of thousands of AI agents working in parallel rather than interacting with AI one-on-one.
“I think within 3 months you'd be talking about, you know, 50,000 agents that can in parallel work for you.”
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open Dave Blundin: Dave will personally have '100x capability' by the end of the week, which he plans to use first on self-improving algorithms, then on health and longevity.
“I will have 100x capability by the end of the week.”
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open Dave Blundin: AI capability will grow roughly 1,000x to 10,000x over the next year, combining Elon's fixed-model-size 100x gain with another 100x from specialization/sparsification.
“it's much more likely a thousand to 10,000 next year”
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open Dave Blundin: Within a year, people will start demanding a 'universal basic right to AI' as GPU and memory shortages leave frontier-model access concentrated in just a couple of labs.
“one year from today, everybody... will be saying, what is my universal basic right to artificial intelligence”
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open Dave Blundin: Billion-token AI context windows, letting a model hold roughly the entire Library of Congress in one thought, will arrive imminently.
“billion token context windows... I'm 100% sure of this now based on recent results”
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open Dave Blundin: The release of Kimi K3 will turn out to be as defining a moment in human history as anything that's ever happened, because of the psychology it triggered in Xi Jinping around open-sourcing frontier AI.
“I think the release of Kimmy K3 will turn out to be as defining a moment in human history as anything that's ever happened. That's that's my prediction.”
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open Dave Blundin: AI movie production compute cost will fall to roughly $100,000, then $10,000, for a feature-length film.
“You could shoot a movie just like that one probably for 100,000 of compute and then 10,000 of compute.”
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open Dave Blundin: By 2030, a couple percent of all computers will be operating in space, launched via Elon's rockets.
“the forecast is by 2030, a couple percent of all computers in space via Elon's rockets.”
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open Dave Blundin: A major compute or physics breakthrough will make today's chip-fab investments, like Tesla's Terafab, largely obsolete before they finish being built.
“it's almost inconceivable that we get to 2030 without some major breakthrough that makes everything that we've built so far kind of moot.”
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open Dave Blundin: Recursive self-improvement and AGI will arrive by 2030 at the latest, even by the most conservative informed estimates.
“the latest date you'll hear now is 2030”
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open Dave Blundin: In 10 years, if people take out loans at all, they won't be for cars or houses (which become cheap and abundant via robotic manufacturing) but to buy compute, likely financed through Orin.
“if you take out a loan in 10 years... it's to buy compute”
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open Dave Blundin: The Dyson Swarm buildout, financed partly through compute futures markets like Orin's, will become the fundamental investment vehicle underlying everyone's retirement savings.
“it's the fundamental investment vehicle for everyone's 401k plan, for everybody's retirement”
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open Dave Blundin: xAI's Grok will jump to the top of the Voxel Bench leaderboard in its next release
“My guess is Grok jumps to the top of this leaderboard in the next next release.”
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open Dave Blundin: Companies that fail to optimize their AI usage will see token costs exceed payroll within about a year, and reach roughly 10 times payroll within two years
“my token costs are actually going to be bigger than my payroll by the end of the year. And then if I forecast out 2 years from now, my token costs are 10 times my payroll.”
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open Dave Blundin: Tesla and SpaceX/xAI will merge into one company.
“I still think we're going to see the merger of of Tesla and Space Xai, right?”
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open Dave Blundin: The rate of AI progress will make the planned September 2026 US-China negotiating trip effectively obsolete before it even happens.
“You do not even have until September. I guarantee it.”
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open Dave Blundin: AI growth will move from a chip/compute-constrained period into true unconstrained exponential growth once self-replicating robotic chip fabs ('terra fabs') come online.
“We won't get into true unconstrained exponential growth until the terra fab is online... that's a couple years from now.”
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open Dave Blundin: Frontier lab (OpenAI/Anthropic-style) valuations will settle at roughly a quarter of what they were three months ago, driven by government pre-release review plus open-weight substitution.
“I would put the finger in the air value of these Frontier Labs at about a quarter of what they were three months ago.”
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open Dave Blundin: Raw compute efficiency improves 100x to 10,000x within three years via quantization and new compute methods, compounding with algorithmic gains toward roughly a millionfold improvement.
“The most likely forecast based on everything Emad and Alex just said, we're expecting 100 to 10,000x within three years on just the raw compute... realistically a millionaire.”
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open Dave Blundin: Within a couple of weeks, once Kimi K3's open weights are released and battle-tested, it will be clear whether the model's benchmark results were 'benchmaxed' (gamed) or genuine.
“We'll know in a couple weeks though whether it was benchmaxed to hell or not.”
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open Dave Blundin: AI digital-twin avatars of political and public figures will become the dominant medium for political outreach
“it should be easily dominant two years from now in the next election... once people realize that there's no going back. It's going to be huge.”
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open Dave Blundin: The US will trade-embargo countries that don't respect intellectual property rights amid an accelerating AI-driven innovation boom
“the likely outcome of that is the US will trade embargo anybody who doesn't respect intellectual property rights... that's going to happen soon like in the next couple of years”
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open Dave Blundin: OpenAI's full-duplex live voice technology will be built into every device, including washing machines, everywhere in the world.
“this should be in every device, every washing machine, every every in the world everywhere within six months”
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open Dave Blundin: Access to the best AI models will be governed by an application-and-inspection regime rather than a formal non-proliferation treaty, effectively becoming the post-singularity governance structure for AI.
“we're going to see uh, basically an AI inspection treaty, not a non-prololiferation treaty... that'll effectively create the governance of AI after the singularity”
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open Dave Blundin: If the government sets up an AI-equity sovereign wealth fund, the next president will immediately liquidate it into cash to fund vote-buying in the following election.
“The next president will immediately sell it all, turn it into cash, and then use it to buy votes in the next election.”
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open Dave Blundin: Inference-time custom AI chips will deliver at least 100x, and possibly 10,000x, the performance of current chips, translating directly into higher model IQ and a hard takeoff.
“I would be shocked if the inference time custom chips aren't at least 100x and maybe 10,000x the performance that we're currently seeing which will translate directly into IQ.”
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open Dave Blundin: It will take about a decade to work through industrial/dirty/dangerous-job robot automation before general-purpose robots can handle tasks like home gardening.
“it's going to take a decade to kind of get through that before we can get to somebody coming over and doing gardening for you”
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open Dave Blundin: The video game market (currently a couple hundred billion dollars) will grow 3x to 10x once real-time AI-generated interactive video is cracked.
“I wouldn't be surprised to see it three, four, five, 10x”
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open Dave Blundin: SpaceX/Elon Musk will begin launching or building out photonic compute infrastructure to replace Nvidia GPU-based data centers.
“I would be shocked if by the time we're talking to Elon next December, I'd be shocked if we're not talking about launching... the terrafab started on the photonic compute at about 1/100 the mass”
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open Dave Blundin: Anthropic's most advanced model ('Fable 5') will return to availability, but as a reduced/limited version of what was originally released.
“Fable 5 will come back, but it'll be a reduced version of what it was the first time it was out.”
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open Dave Blundin: A product branded 'Fable 5' will be back online, per Polymarket odds, though it may be patched or capability-reduced rather than identical to the original.
“Polymarket says Fable 5 will be back out, you know, 90% chance within a month.”
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open Dave Blundin: Bernie Sanders' proposal to transfer 50% of top AI companies' equity into a public fund will not happen.
“No, I don't think it'll happen. I think Bernie's just trying to attract news.”
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open Dave Blundin: If Apple does not act aggressively, it will lose the Siri/interface layer to Android and Google, while TSMC shifts chip manufacturing capacity away from Apple toward higher-paying AI data-center customers, pushing phone hardware manufacturing toward Samsung.
“The way it would play out if Apple doesn't do something aggressive uh is you lose the interface... you've lost your hardware manufacturing under the covers and you've lost the interface on the other side and then everybody just moves to Android.”
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open Dave Blundin: The economy will see triple-digit GDP growth, supporting Elon Musk's earlier claim.
“This gives support to when Elon said triple-digit GDP growth by 2030.”
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open Dave Blundin: Companies will replace their human-run operating model with an AI-based one, including an emerging AI governance/ethics layer to oversee agentic AI.
“we're going to replace our human operating system in companies with an AI based one... one of the prime things that's emerging as a governance and ethics layer.”
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open Dave Blundin: The window for purely software-based AI startups to generate outsized venture returns will close in roughly two years as the AI self-improvement loop takes over; robotics will be a good investment theme for about a decade.
“The window of opportunity for pure software AI is probably another couple years and then the self-improvement loop is going to take over... I think robotics is a good 10-year theme.”
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open Dave Blundin: The window of AI-driven job loss and social disruption will turn a corner as abundance-driven new job creation catches up and overtakes it.
“we were always predicting that by 2030 it would turn the corner because the abundance created by all this AI is going to create massive massive new gains.”
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open Dave Blundin: Once SpaceX and Tesla are both public, they will begin acquiring a large number of companies, potentially a thousand or more billion-dollar-plus acquisitions.
“once they go public, they're going to be beginning to acquire a number of companies as part of it... there is capacity for a thousand unicorn transactions.”
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open Dave Blundin: SpaceX/xAI and Tesla will merge into a single entity ('Musk Corp').
“within a year, we're going to see that... the ability to value them and merge them uh becomes a lot easier.”
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open Dave Blundin: The new AI-driven parallel economy/financial system will grow to be 10 times bigger than the entire traditional New York banking/finance system within 10-20 years.
“if Elon's right, it'll be 10 times bigger than everything you see in New York in about 10 to 20 years and growing on a much faster curve.”
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open Dave Blundin: China will maintain its video-generation data advantage for a while longer, but Western models will eventually catch up.
“I think they'll stay ahead for a bit longer, but uh I think the models will catch up.”
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open Dave Blundin: Agentic development tools will move beyond chat-based interfaces into real-time graphical/spatial ('holodeck-style') interaction that lets users manipulate what they're building directly.
“that next iteration is certainly within this calendar year.”
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open Dave Blundin: Elon's Terrafab chip-manufacturing project will end up costing significantly more than the reported $119 billion estimate.
“I think it's going to cost more than 119 billion, but that's okay.”
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open Dave Blundin: Recursive self-improvement is happening imminently or already occurring quietly, much sooner than Anthropic's 2028 estimate suggests.
“I think that's it's much sooner than that. And in fact, I think it's here right now quietly or imminent.”
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open Dave Blundin: Corporate America, unprepared for permanent compute scarcity, will suffer significantly when it tries to automate operations and finds no available compute.
“They're going to really really suffer probably two to three years from now when there's nothing available.”
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open Dave Blundin: Even if Intel's Terrafab facility comes online, it will not come online on schedule, and once it does, all its added compute will be absorbed instantly by AI demand rather than easing the shortage.
“Even if Terrafab comes online on time, which it won't, right? There's no chance of it coming on time online. Even if it did, though, we would use up all that compute instantaneously.”
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open Dave Blundin: The compute shortfall relative to consumer demand for immersive AI experiences (like Link's holodeck) will not be solved by 2028, but should ease by 2030-2031 once new chip fabrication ('terrafab') capacity comes online.
“There's no way that's going to get solved by 2028. I'm hoping 2030, 2031 after the terrafab has a chance.”
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open Dave Blundin: An entire generation will have 70-80% of their conversations with AI companions rather than with other people.
“I suspect that an entire generation will have 70-80% of their conversations will be with AIs and not with other people.”
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open Dave Blundin: Anthropic will hit between $40 billion and $70 billion in annual revenue, per a board-meeting conversation with an Anthropic investor.
“Anthropic under the covers is thinking they might hit between 40, 50 up to 70 billion in revenue by the end of the year.”
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open Dave Blundin: AI-driven clinical diagnostic tools will face huge regulatory and professional 'immune system' backlash as they roll out.
“just let's my prediction is huge uh regulatory and immune system backlash on this one.”
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open Dave Blundin: Annual spend on AI data centers as a share of GDP will approach 100% once physical goods/robotics built in service of AI are counted.
“If you include, you know, building physical things to make people happy as part of the data center buildout, it's 100%.”
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open Dave Blundin: If major AI labs devote even 10% of their effort to a deliberate roadmap for displaced workers (starting with software engineers, then legal and other professional services), the transition disruption will largely be resolved.
“If they just turn 10% of their AI into this problem, I know by 2030, we'll be beyond it.”
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open Dave Blundin: 2026 will be a '100x year' for AI progress, exceeding his own earlier prediction, driven partly by breakthroughs like TurboQuant's memory compression.
“My prediction for the year was definitely going to be right... it's going to be 100x by summer. I'm going to blow away that prediction.”
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open Dave Blundin: The AI-run Ind Labs store (Luna) will become one of the best-managed stores in the world.
“My bet is this will be one of the best managed stores in the world within a year.”
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open Dave Blundin: AI models will become smart enough this year to pose a genuine terrorist, bioweapon, and chemical-weapon threat, driving US labs to stop publishing and turn research fully internal.
“It's inevitable that the models become so smart this year that they become a terrorist threat. They become a bioweapon threat. They become a chemical weapon threat.”
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open Dave Blundin: Elite technical skills (e.g., chip design, coding) held by top students will become a complete commodity within about two years, post-ASI.
“Your big huge Princeton brain is the most valuable thing on the planet right now. It's going to be a complete commodity two years from today post ASI.”
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open Dave Blundin: Anthropic will push toward roughly $200 billion in ARR (beyond the commonly cited $100B figure), but will NOT reach anywhere near $1 trillion ARR the following year as some are implying -- more realistically $300-500 billion.
“they're going to try and hit 200 billion. 100 billion is a good target, but 200 billion. But then they're not going to go from there to a trillion the following year... There's no chance in hell they're going to hit a trillion the following year.”
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open Dave Blundin: One of the mega AI/space companies (e.g. SpaceX/XAI/Tesla) will reach a $100 trillion valuation.
“But anyway, the my my guess would be five years.”
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open Dave Blundin: OpenAI's GPT-5.5 ('Spud') will be released imminently, potentially matching or exceeding Mythos's capability.
“I hear rumors that it it could be within a day or two. I I don't know but imminent.”
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open Dave Blundin: eVTOLs will move from single-pilot operation to fully autonomous flight within about two years, once the AI command-and-control work already underway for self-driving cars extends to aircraft.
“there'll be a couple year very short period of time, in my opinion, 2 years or so.”
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open Dave Blundin: A public tipping point (comparable to anti-drunk-driving or anti-smoking campaigns), including a TV ad campaign, will turn public opinion sharply against human driving on public roads within three to five years, though a chip shortage will be the main factor delaying full illegality.
“there'll be a there'll be a TV ad campaign probably 3, 4, 5 years from now with lots of ugly images in it... But, I think the thing that would make it later is purely the shortage of chips.”
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open Dave Blundin: AI-driven job disruption will be severe over the next two to three years, but the broader economy will recover and conditions will improve again by 2030-2032.
“there's going to be huge amounts of job disruption in the next two or three years and then it'll turn around and by 2030, 2032, things will be good again.”
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open Dave Blundin: NVIDIA will generate about $350 billion in revenue this calendar year and grow another 2x once the 2-nanometer node comes online, after which it will be floored by fab capacity.
“It'll be 350 billion dollars this calendar year. And it'll grow at the max possible rate that he can get TSMC capacity... he can grow another 2x into the 2 nanometer node and then he's floored.”
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open Dave Blundin: Government jobs (and similar institutions like universities) will be the last category of jobs to be automated, because institutions will keep paying people regardless of productivity need.
“My advice is I think the last job to be automated will be government jobs.”
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open Dave Blundin: A US state will pass a China-style law requiring companies to retrain AI-displaced workers, triggering a rush by employers in other states to lay off workers before similar laws reach them.
“that'll happen in the US very soon, but it's going to roll out in one state first... everyone in all the other states is going to race to fire people before the law passes in their state, too.”
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open Dave Blundin: Governments will respond to AI-driven hyperdeflation by printing money and hyperinflating the currency to offset collapsing prices and erase real debt.
“We'll hyperinflate and we know how to do it... we start printing money and everyone becomes billionaires or trillionaires.”
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open Dave Blundin: On its current growth trend, Anthropic will be the first company in history to hit a trillion dollars in annual revenue, and could exceed OpenAI's revenue this year.
“on its current trend will be the first company to hit a trillion dollars in revenue in history by 2029, 2030”
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open Dave Blundin: The window to put regulatory structure around democratized AI capability (e.g., anyone designing a virus or nuclear weapon via an AI agent) will close before the end of this calendar year, as capability keeps compounding.
“there's a window where we can start thinking about regulations that register the AI use cases and agents and chips and processing before chaos breaks out... because it's happening this year”
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open Dave Blundin: Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX will go public amid a hot IPO market, potentially within about six months, at extraordinary valuations.
“Anthropic going public, OpenAI going public, SpaceX going public. These are going to be insane numbers in the next...6 months?”
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open Dave Blundin: Massive social unrest driven by AI-related economic disruption is imminent, arriving by the end of 2026 and before the next US presidential election.
“There's going to be massive social unrest, huge social unrest, and it's imminent. It's coming, you know, toward the end of this year, and certainly before the next presidential election.”
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open Dave Blundin: Fully interactive, AI-driven online tutoring — where the AI can take on any chosen voice or personality to maximize engagement, unlike today's fixed-personality human teachers — will become viable and widely available.
“It'll be there within a year.”
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open Dave Blundin: Corporate CEOs will hold companywide meetings demanding AI be used in every job; the small fraction of employees already AI-native will get large raises for making their teams 3x more efficient, while the resulting efficiency gains eliminate many other jobs.
“the way it's going to unfold very, very soon is corporate CEOs ... will go to companywide meetings and say, we need AI to be used in every one of your jobs.”
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open Dave Blundin: Radical job destruction is imminent and will cause a multi-year period of economic devastation unless government support programs are put in place.
“massive job destruction is imminent...it's going to be, you know, a window of time, a few years of complete devastation”
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open Dave Blundin: Building functional data centers in space will take five to seven years, not the two to three years some are hoping for.
“it's going to take a while to figure out the problems of doing data centers in space...it's a five to sevenyear thing at best”
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open Dave Blundin: Corporate CEOs, including at his own companies, will use AI to cut costs by 30-50% while giving remaining employees a 3-10x productivity increase, creating a painful transition trough before eventual UBI/abundance.
“all the corporate CEOs I know including our own companies are going to use AI to cut costs by 30 to 50%... they're looking at 3 to 10x productivity increase.”
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open Dave Blundin: Disagreeing with Alex's 18-month lock-in window, the critical decision period will actually take closer to two years.
“I disagree with the 18 months when I've been advising some big company CEOs. I've been saying two years.”
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open Dave Blundin: There will be no privacy whatsoever for people in general.
“The way it's trending right now Peter's exactly right there will be no privacy whatsoever in the next 3 years”
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open Dave Blundin: Sam Altman/OpenAI will find roughly $75 billion in ad revenue and make an ads-in-ChatGPT model work despite it initially seeming creepy.
“I will go on record and predict that... he'll find his 75 billion of ad revenue he's looking for. He'll find a way to make it less creepy.”
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open Dave Blundin: An open-source agent based on the OpenClaw codebase, already scanning open ports and paired with frontier-level model intelligence, will find a vulnerability in a nuclear reactor or chemical factory and cause some kind of release/industrial incident.
“somebody takes this exact open source project... finds a vulnerability in a nuclear reactor or something like that or or some chemical factory and there's some kind of a release... that's very likely to happen very very soon”
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open Dave Blundin: Humanoid robots will make human 'meat puppet' labor (humans performing physical tasks for AI agents) largely unnecessary.
“we'll we'll get humanoid robots in the next two years and then meet puppets. We don't need them anymore”
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open Dave Blundin: Whatever level of AI capability Dario Amodei and Demis Hassabis were describing at Davos 2026 will be magnified 100x to 1000x by next year.
“next year, you know, whatever Dario and Deis are saying this year will be magnified 100 or a thousand x year.”
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open Dave Blundin: Apple's AI pin will launch audio-only and then quickly add 180-degree camera capability, triggering a brief public 'moral panic' before near-universal adoption.
“it'll start audio only for all of a minute and then it'll have uh 180 degree camera capability immediately after that... we'll go through a moral panic for all of five minutes and then everyone will be wearing them.”
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open Dave Blundin: OpenAI will unveil its first hardware device.
“OpenAI confirmed it's going to unveil its first hardware device in the second half of this year.”
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miss Dave Blundin: Grok 5, built on Nvidia's new GB300 chips with over an order of magnitude more compute, will be released.
“the next thing that comes out, which will be uh I guess Grok 5, uh will have been built on the new GB300s from Nvidia... that'll be out in a few months”
open Dave Blundin: The timeline to fully-automated robot and house production ('robots for everybody, houses for everybody') is much shorter than previously believed, following the observation that Optimus's own manufacturing line is nearly fully automated.
“the timeline to robots for everybody, houses for everybody, much shorter than I was thinking just 2 or 3 weeks ago”
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open Dave Blundin: Some capital-intensive AI-adjacent bets, such as fusion energy, robotics, or quantum computing, will fail and turn into losses, risking a broader loss of investor confidence in AI similar to the 2000-2001 dot-com crash.
“Some of them are going to consume a ton of money and turn into losses, and that may scare off the entire investment community.”
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open Dave Blundin: Self-improving massive foundation models will reach superhuman IQ.
“It's looking more and more likely that these self-improving massive foundation models are going to get to, you know, superhuman IQ this year. This year being 2026.”
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miss Dave Blundin: The biggest AI models will see roughly a 100x year-over-year leap in effective size/capability (via FP4 and ternary-weight quantization), exceeding the panel's earlier 40x prediction.
“we're going to see models at the end of the year that are 100x bigger in just raw parameter count and parameter flips... because of quantization breakthroughs.”
open Dave Blundin: A new three-or-four-letter acronym for an industry virtually nobody has heard of today will emerge and mint at least one, probably around three, new young billionaires (echoing RLHF).
“there'll be a new three or four letter acronym this year that right now virtually nobody knows... you'll find at least one and probably more like three new billionaires.”
Your call:
partial Dave Blundin: 2026 will feel like the early-1980s home-computer era again: robot and self-driving-car capability will accelerate faster than manufacturing supply, so only a limited number of households get one.
“it'll be like 19 kind of 83, '84 again.”
open Dave Blundin: AI capability will be able to eliminate on the order of 80-90% of all jobs, and by the end of 2026 corporate adoption will flip from stodgy inaction to absolute panic-driven adoption.
“the capabilities will be... able to eliminate on the order of 80, 90% of all jobs... by the end of 2026, everyone's in absolute panic mode.”
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open Dave Blundin: Medium and large companies will need to hire AI reskilling consultancies to provide employees a safety net and reskill them before layoffs.
“there's going to be an absolute need for all the medium-siz and large companies to bring in a reskilling... consultancy.”
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open Dave Blundin: Over the next 5 years, the entire US Constitution will effectively evaporate clause by clause and need to be rewritten from the ground up.
“the entire US constitution will evaporate... it needs to be rewritten from the ground up.”
Your call:
open Dave Blundin: ARC-AGI-1 will be completely saturated imminently.
“it's going to be completely saturated imminently.”
Your call:
open Dave Blundin: Humanoid robots will not exist in sufficient numbers to solve the global housing/manufacturing problem for about 15 years, even though individuals will have them much sooner, due to manufacturing ramp-up constraints.
“we won't have enough of them to attack the global problem for about 15 years because of this, you know, just the manufacturing, you know, rate”
Your call:
open Dave Blundin: Fully automated driving becomes ubiquitous enough that his son, now 14, never needs a driver's license, fulfilling a decade-old prediction.
“My son, who's now 14, would never get a driver's license. So, we got two years to satisfy that.”
Your call:
open Dave Blundin: The AI/compute/robotics tipping point discussed across OpenAI, China's open-source models, and robotics will arrive within the next 6 months.
“We're just at this tipping point and the tipping point is in the next 6 months.”
Your call:
open Dave Blundin: A startup building AI-controlled, foolproof AV/presentation systems (voice-controlled cameras, lighting, screen-sharing) could ship a product within six months and become a major success.
“Very doable. You could get that product out the door in like six months or less and just crush it.”
Your call:
open Dave Blundin: The robotic/physical-world version of an always-available AI assistant (an 'Iron Man suit' AI) is one to three years away, though the virtual-world version already exists today.
“The robotic version of it where it makes your Iron Man suit might be a year or two or three out”
Your call:
open Dave Blundin: The current EMG wristband interface will become obsolete before it 'creeps' closer to the brain, replaced by more elegant signal-extraction methods.
“I think this becomes irrelevant before it gets trapped”
Your call:
open Dave Blundin: Once software-only recursive self-improvement takes hold, an unmistakable 1000x jump in neural network performance (instant disease and math solutions) will occur within roughly a 30-day window, with no change in chips.
“you're going to see a an immediate 1000x step up in performance of neural network software and the results of that are going to be unmistakable... all going to happen within say a 30-day window”
Your call:
open Dave Blundin: Duolingo is doomed unless it transforms itself into an AI-native company.
“Duolingo is absolutely doomed unless it becomes an AI company.”
Your call:
open Dave Blundin: Autonomous ride-hailing will make driving roughly four times cheaper than owning a car, letting the poorest people be chauffeured first.
“Driving will be four times cheaper than owning a car.”
Your call:
open Dave Blundin: Chip and algorithmic efficiency gains will eventually close most of the 100,000-1,000,000x energy gap between frontier AI models and the human brain, multiplying effective AI capability at fixed power.
“If we get a 10 to the 5th, 10 to the 6th improvement in energy efficiency, that means we get that level of improvement on our total AI capabilities.”
Your call:
open Dave Blundin: We will know within about 6 months (out to a maximum of 2 years) whether a single dominant, self-improving AI/ASI emerges and pulls decisively ahead of all others.
“I think most likely 6 months, you know, out of bounds two years”
Your call:
open Dave Blundin: A scalable, functional quantum computer will exist.
“a scalable functional quantum computer is within 3 years according to our our best experts around MIT, maybe even sooner”
Your call:
open Dave Blundin: Data center buildout capex will reach roughly $1 trillion per year.
“the data center buildout is going to be a trillion dollars a year starting in 2029”
Your call:
open Dave Blundin: How people buy goods (and make life decisions like travel) will be fundamentally transformed by AI agents.
“how we buy stuff is going to be fundamentally transformed over the next 12 to 24 months. Fundamental.”
Your call:
open Dave Blundin: The rate of new AI unicorn creation keeps accelerating for at least a couple more years before AGI changes the picture entirely.
“we have at least a couple years of really good very rapid expansion of that number”
Your call:
open Dave Blundin: AI models will be able to autonomously find and fix bugs in their own training code.
“that's certainly going to be the truth within a year”
Your call:
open Dave Blundin: By the next election cycle the US will be in a full-blown AI arms race with China, triggered irreversibly by chip export restrictions, regardless of whether that path was rational.
“next election cycle we'll be in a fullbore AI arms race with China whether it was rational or not.”
Your call:
open Dave Blundin: Predicts an increase in autonomous truck driving without a significant decrease in the number of truck drivers.
“That's my prediction. Let's see if I'm right or not.”
Your call:
open Dave Blundin: Predicts that drivers will be able to finance and purchase autonomous cars and become managers of fleets of autonomous cars.
“These cars are out there uh earning a living on behalf of those drivers.”
Your call:
open Dave Blundin: Over the next four years, UBI or similar measures will allow people to act on their ideas.
“there's very likely a world coming up over the next four years where they're given time whether it's UBI or otherwise and they can act”
Your call:
open Dave Blundin: Transformer models will become better at chip design, self-referential programming, and accelerating the acceleration of AI.
“Where these models now become better at chip design, at iterating and improving themselves in self-referential, you know, uh, uh, programming and an acceleration of the acceleration.”
Your call:
open Dave Blundin: Dario is probably right about the risks of powerful AI.
“Daario saying you know chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear weapons are are an incredible risk if you put powerful AI in the hands of every person on the planet.”
Your call:
open Dave Blundin: If 1% of the Fortune 1000 put 1% of their treasury into Bitcoin, the price would reach $1 million per Bitcoin.
“if 1% of the Fortune 1000 put 1% of their treasury in Bitcoin, that would drive it to a million dollars of Bitcoin, which seems more and more likely”
Your call:
open Dave Blundin: The window to set the course of one's career/life around AI closes in about four years (by 2030); after that the value distribution will already be locked in.
“the safest bet by far is to run like hell toward your targets... you'll be very glad you didn't waste a millisecond between now and 2030”
Your call:
open Dave Blundin: Almost any white-collar coding or other knowledge job will no longer exist.
“almost any white collar coding or other job, it's not going to exist in 2030”
Your call:
open Dave Blundin: China intends to take control of Taiwan.
“So what does China said? They want to own Taiwan by 2028”
Your call:
open Dave Blundin: The US will have no access to Taiwan-manufactured chips if China takes Taiwan, and US fabs won't be ready in time.
“the federal estimate... is that you have to make the assumption that no access to chips from Taiwan by December 2027, which is nowhere near enough time to get the US fabs up and running”
Your call: