Elon Musk
84 tracked predictions · 2 hit · 6 partial · 4 miss · 72 still open
open Elon Musk: SpaceX will conduct 30 Starship launches per day (about 10,000 per year) by 2030 to build orbital solar-powered data centers.
“implement 30 Starship launches per day by 2030”
Your call:
open Elon Musk: Double-digit US GDP growth is coming, followed by triple-digit growth, en route to a 'post-capitalist' economy where AI and robotics deliver anything anyone could want.
“we're going to see double digit growth in the GDP in the next 18-24 months triple digit growth in 5 years and then... by 2036 basically post capitalist... anything you could possibly want will be delivered by AI and robotics.”
Your call:
open Elon Musk: Humans will land on Mars within 5 years, and a Moon colony with tens of thousands of people will exist within 10 years.
“if we're going to get humans on Mars in the next 5 years, as Elon says, and a moon colony in the next 10 years with tens of thousands of people”
Your call:
open Elon Musk: Feature films will be produced using Elon Musk's (xAI/Grok) video-generation technology.
“Elon tweeted, we're going to see feature films by the end of this year using his technology.”
Your call:
open Elon Musk: Open-weight AI models will reach the usefulness of Anthropic's top ('Fable 5') model.
“Elon recently predicted openweight models uh will hit fable 5 usefulness by Q1 of 2027.”
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open Elon Musk: AI will drive double-digit US GDP growth within two years and triple-digit GDP growth within five years.
“Elon said double-digit GDP growth in two years and triple-digit within five years.”
Your call:
open Elon Musk: Up to 10 billion humanoid robots will exist by 2040 (prediction echoed by Brett Adcock; Alex Wissner-Gross calls it 'probably right').
“The prediction that comes both from Elon and from Brett Adcock, up to 10 billion humanoid robots by 2040. It's probably right.”
Your call:
open Elon Musk: Tesla will produce 1 million Optimus humanoid robots by 2030.
“Elon predicts 1 million Optimus production by 2030.”
Your call:
open Elon Musk: SpaceX will attempt to shoot a Starship at Mars this year, though it's unclear if it will be crewed by an Optimus robot or attempt a landing.
“Elon has said is he intends to shoot Starship this year at Mars.”
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open Elon Musk: The economy will be at least 10x its current size within 10 years, absent a world war.
“I'd say the economy is 10 times its current size in 10 years. Greater than.”
Your call:
open Elon Musk: Triple-digit percentage GDP growth within 5+ years.
“you said triple digit growth in 5 plus years from now on GDP.”
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open Elon Musk: Recursive self-improvement in AI could become fully automated (no human in the loop).
“it may be there end of this year, but I'm not going to wait until the next year.”
Your call:
partial Elon Musk: xAI/Grok will catch up to and exceed competitors on coding.
“we should probably get there by the middle of this year.”
open Elon Musk: There will be a mass driver on the moon.
“I think I think we'll have a mass driver on the moon in 10 years.”
Your call:
miss Elon Musk: Optimus 3 production will begin, though slowly at first.
“I think we'll start production on Optimus 3 this summer.”
open Elon Musk: Optimus 3 will reach high-volume production.
“probably reach high volume production around summer next year.”
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open Elon Musk: Optimus 4 will be designed, continuing a cadence of a new/improved robot design every year.
“we'll have Optimus 4 ... design likely next year. I got to try to release a new robot design every year.”
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open Elon Musk: Money will stop being relevant as AI/robot abundance grows.
“I think money will stop being relevant at some point in the future.”
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open Elon Musk: Growth in goods and services will outpace growth in the money supply, producing deflation, en route to universal high income.
“if the rate of growth of goods and services far exceeds the rate of growth of the money supply, which I predict will happen, then you'll have deflation.”
Your call:
open Elon Musk: AI will solve chronic back pain.
“can AI please solve back pain? That would be a huge win. And I think it will.”
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open Elon Musk: AI and robotics will help solve the government budget deficit and prevent national bankruptcy.
“we're going to solve our budget deficit, frankly, and not just go bankrupt as a country.”
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open Elon Musk: The AI-driven future will turn out great.
“it's probably 80% likely, maybe more likely to be great.”
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open Elon Musk: The world's biggest company could be valued as high as $100 trillion.
“the biggest company in 10 years could be valued as high as a hundred trillion dollar”
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open Elon Musk: SpaceX's target is to manufacture 10,000 Starships per year.
“his target is 10,000 Starships per year”
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open Elon Musk: Tesla FSD will be 100 times safer than human drivers.
“Elon's projection that FSD will be 100 times safer than humans in 5 years”
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open Elon Musk: AGI (artificial general intelligence) will be achieved.
“I think we'll hit um AGI next year in 26.”
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open Elon Musk: AI will exceed the combined intelligence of all humans on Earth.
“I'm confident... AI will exceed the intelligence of all humans combined.”
Your call:
open Elon Musk: AI capability will keep improving via pure algorithmic gains at roughly a 10x-per-year rate.
“it is like a 10x improvement per year type thing.”
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open Elon Musk: Tesla will operate a 2-nanometer chip fab with air handling clean enough that Musk could eat a cheeseburger and smoke a cigar inside it.
“Tesla will have a 2nm fab and I can eat a cheeseburger and smoke a cigar in the fab.”
Your call:
open Elon Musk: There is a viable path to 100 gigawatts per year, and eventually up to 100 terawatts per year, of solar-powered AI compute satellites, including manufacturing satellites on the Moon and launching them via mass driver.
“I do see a path to 100 gawatts a year of... space solar.”
Your call:
open Elon Musk: Society will end up with both universal high income and social unrest simultaneously.
“that's my prediction... universal high income and social unrest.”
Your call:
open Elon Musk: The AI/robot-driven economic transition will be bumpy, bringing radical change and social unrest alongside immense prosperity.
“the transition will be bumpy... radical change, social unrest and immense prosperity.”
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open Elon Musk: Aging will be solved (reversible/'semi-mortality' achieved) via new technology.
“I do believe that it's this next decade.”
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open Elon Musk: A humanoid robot (Optimus) will become a better surgeon than the best human surgeons on Earth, and there will eventually be more Optimus surgeons than all human surgeons combined.
“Three years.”
Your call:
open Elon Musk: The global humanoid robot population will exceed 10 billion units, calling the commonly cited 10-billion-by-2040 figure too low.
“that's not that's a low number.”
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open Elon Musk: Medical care better than what's available to anyone today, including heads of state, will be available for free to everyone.
“better medical care than anyone has today available for everyone within 5 years.”
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open Elon Musk: There will be no scarcity of goods or services, and the best education will be available to everyone for free.
“no scarcity of goods or services. The best education available for everybody.”
Your call:
open Elon Musk: People will care more about their personal access to AI compute than about any government income check.
“People will probably care a lot more about that than their government check... in about three years.”
Your call:
open Elon Musk: SpaceX will demonstrate Starship orbital propellant refueling.
“I'd say towards towards the end of the year.”
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open Elon Musk: A crewed or uncrewed Mars transit attempt is more realistic in 2028-2029 than by the end of 2026, which he called a low-probability distraction.
“28 29... it's not out of the question.”
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open Elon Musk: AI will become meaningfully helpful for rocket engineering design work, which it currently cannot do.
“it probably can be helpful, meaningfully helpful in a year from now.”
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open Elon Musk: xAI's Colossus 2 cluster in Memphis will reach 1 gigawatt of training compute, growing to about 1.5 gigawatts a few months later.
“mid January will be a gigawatt of Colossus 2... one and a half gigawatts probably... April.”
Your call:
open Elon Musk: AI chip production will grow faster than the power and cooling infrastructure needed to turn those chips on, validating TSMC's stated caution about overbuilding GPU capacity.
“this is my prediction. I could be wrong... TSMC's concern is is valid.”
Your call:
open Elon Musk: The industry will shift from training AI models at 16-bit precision to training natively at 4-bit precision or lower, producing a large performance jump.
“no doubt in my mind this year we're going to flip to training on four or even less.”
Your call:
open Elon Musk: Visible, tangible progress -- humanoid robots, self-driving cybercabs, and flying vehicles -- will make the coming year feel unmistakably like 'the future.'
“I think next year is going to feel like the future.”
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open Elon Musk: Humanoid robot production will scale rapidly enough that robots will no longer be a rare/scarce good.
“there'll be a shitload of robots basically in two years.”
Your call:
open Elon Musk: The gap between humanoid robots being scarce and being plentiful/commoditized will close.
“the difference... between scarce and plentiful will be only a matter of five years.”
Your call:
open Elon Musk: China's electricity output will surpass three times that of the United States.
“China I think will pass three times the US electricity output... in 26.”
Your call:
open Elon Musk: There will be 10 billion humanoid robots in the world, priced around $20,000-$30,000 each.
“His prediction is 10 billion humanoid robots by 2040 uh and a price point of you know 20 to $30,000.”
Your call:
open Elon Musk: Tesla's Optimus robot will reach about $20,000 in cost of goods once production scales to millions of units, eventually with robots building robots.
“Elon said Optimus is going to be at this $20,000... cost of goods... when they get to a millions of robots being built.”
Your call:
open Elon Musk: Grok 5, the first major model trained on the new Blackwell wafer-scale chips, has roughly a 10% chance of qualifying as AGI.
“He says it's 10% chance of AGI, whatever that is.”
Your call:
open Elon Musk: Tesla's Optimus V3 humanoid robot, releasing at the end of Q1 2026, will look and move so convincingly human that people will need to poke it to confirm it's a robot.
“It won't even seem like a robot. It'll seem like a human in a robot suit. It will seem so real that you need to poke it to tell that it's a robot.”
Your call:
open Elon Musk: 80% of Tesla's future revenue will come from sales of the Optimus humanoid robot.
“80% of Tesla's future revenues are going to come from sales of the Optimus.”
Your call:
open Elon Musk: Tesla will scale Optimus humanoid robot production to 1 million units per year within five years at a roughly $20,000 manufacturing cost, en route to 10 billion Optimus robots by 2040.
“He's planning to scale to 1 million per year within 5 years.”
Your call:
open Elon Musk: xAI will scale to 50 million H100-equivalent GPUs.
“his goal is 50 million H100 equivalents within the next 5 years”
Your call:
open Elon Musk: XAI will scale its GPU cluster to a million GPUs.
“their goal what Elon has announced is a million GPUs by December 31st”
Your call:
open Elon Musk: Neuralink will triple electrode counts to 3,000 and run its first blind-sight participant trial in 2026, reach 10,000 channels with multiple simultaneous implants in 2027, and hit 25,000+ channels per implant with AI-integration demos by 2028.
“in 2028, our goal is to get to more than 25,000 channels per implant, have multiple of these, have ability to access any part of the brain”
Your call:
open Elon Musk: Super intelligence may happen this year or by the end of next year.
“It may happen this year. If it doesn't happen this year, next year for sure.”
Your call:
open Elon Musk: AI will be 100,000 times better in four years.
“10,000 times better in four years, which means 100,000 times better.”
Your call:
open Elon Musk: Solar energy will be the primary source of energy for AI and electrification of transport in the long term.
“Almost all energy long term will be solar, rounding up to 100%.”
Your call:
open Elon Musk: By 2040, there will be more humanoid robots than people.
“I think by 2040, probably there are more humanoid robots than there are people so on 10 billion.”
Your call:
open Elon Musk: Human-level AI by next year
“by 2024 we're going to have human level AI next year”
Your call:
open Elon Musk: AGI would arrive by 2025 and AI would be equivalent to all humans combined by 2029.
“he did say that he expected call it AGI in 2025 and that by 2029 AI would be equivalent to All Humans”
Your call:
open Elon Musk: AI safety is crucial, and the best way to achieve it is to grow the AI to be truthful and not force it to lie, even if the truth is unpleasant.
“The best way to achieve AI safety is to grow the AI you know in terms of the foundation bottle and the fine tuning to be really truthful like like don't Force It to lie like even if the truth is unpleasant it's very important don't make the AI lie.”
Your call:
miss Elon Musk: AI will be able to do better than any individual human at almost any cognitive task.
“I think it's probably end of next year before AI can do better than any individual human could do”
open Elon Musk: Cumulative digital compute/intelligence will exceed the cumulative biological compute of all human higher brain functions combined.
“I think probably 2029 or maybe 2030 is... where digital intelligence will probably exceed all human intelligence combined”
Your call:
partial Elon Musk: Dedicated AI compute will keep growing at roughly 100x per year.
“it's basically close to... almost like a 100x improvement per year at least for the next few years”
hit Elon Musk: Electrical power supply, not chips, will be the primary bottleneck constraining AI growth.
“next year and years beyond that it's actually just going to be constraints on electrical power”
open Elon Musk: SpaceX will land Starships on the moon.
“I'd be surprised if it's longer than about 3 years to be landing Starships on the moon”
Your call:
partial Elon Musk: SpaceX will fly at least five or six more Starship test flights, each with significant improvements.
“we're hoping to do at least another maybe five or six flights this year”
miss Elon Musk: SpaceX will achieve full reusability of both Starship stages (booster and ship).
“I think we got a decent shot of achieving full reusability of both stages... this year”
miss Elon Musk: If not achieved in 2024, SpaceX will achieve full Starship reusability the following year.
“if not this year I think... it's a very high probability of achieving full reusability next year”
open Elon Musk: Brain-state backup/restoration into a new biological body or robot (digital immortality) will eventually become possible.
“many years in the future but... we're not breaking any laws of physics like I think this is probably something that will happen”
Your call:
hit Elon Musk: The first human Neuralink implant will happen, targeting quadriplegic/tetraplegic patients to control phone and computer via thought ('Telepathy').
“hopefully the first neural link will... in a human hopefully soon... maybe this month or next”
partial Elon Musk: Neuralink's second product, tentatively called 'Blindsight,' will restore sight by connecting directly to the visual cortex, even for people who have lost both eyes and their optic nerves.
“the second product uh sort of tentatively called Blind sight where uh we can restore sight even if somebody is uh has uh lost both eyes and their optic no[r]ve”
open Elon Musk: Humanity has roughly an 80% probability of making it safely through the transition to advanced AI, provided the downside risks are actively managed.
“I've heard you say 80% probability we make it through and we need to protect it[s] downside”
Your call:
partial Elon Musk: The amount of compute dedicated to AI will keep increasing by roughly a factor of 10 every six months.
“the amount of compute dedicated to artificial intelligence is um increasing by a factor of 10 roughly every six months”
partial Elon Musk: AI will be able to come up with genuinely new theories of physics and innovations in the relatively near future.
“I can't wait till the first uh AI is able to come up with new theories of physics um and new innovations that's going to be... I don't think that's far away”
open Elon Musk: Countries with fertility collapse like South Korea and Italy, which are losing roughly half their population each generation, will fall to about one-tenth of their current population within three generations if the trend continues.
“they're losing roughly half their population per generation... that means three generations they're on[e]-10th of their current size”
Your call:
open Elon Musk: SpaceX will launch the next lunar lander with a woman as the first human on the moon.
“SpaceX SpaceX craft will be the next craft to put humans on uh on the moon I believe the first human will be a woman actually this time so uh this is very this great”
Your call:
open Elon Musk: The prize will be the largest incentive prize ever and will spur significant progress in carbon capture and removal methods.
“Elon this is the largest prize ever ever largest incentive prize ever and I would argue for one of the most largest CI uh civilization scale challenges we have sure”
Your call: