Richard Socher
8 tracked predictions · 0 hit · 0 partial · 0 miss · 8 still open
open Richard Socher: Recursive self-improvement will 'take off' with sophisticated self-training once sufficient compute is available.
“This is going to take off uh next year.”
Your call:
open Richard Socher: AI will become superhuman at programming, competitive mathematics, and perfect-information games within a few years, though full ASI across all intelligence spaces will take several decades.
“It will be better at math uh than all of humanity and will like that that will be in a few years.”
Your call:
open Richard Socher: ASI will be capable of curing most diseases, but FDA long-term human-trial timelines mean it will take more than 3 years to confirm cures even with all compounds ready.
“I would argue ASI will have cured all diseases and can cure all of them but just to know whether that happened will take more than 3 years.”
Your call:
open Richard Socher: The current GPU compute crunch will ease within about two years as more power and data center capacity comes online.
“My hunch is in like maybe two years there will be more in the market.”
Your call:
open Richard Socher: We might see an AI model with an IQ of 150 in the future.
“is that a relevant measure you know IQ has like a lot of different dimensions I think intelligence overall has a lot of different dimensions which we briefly talked at our fii uh conference uh conversation um I I don't know if it makes sense to just boil it down to this one number uh”
Your call:
open Richard Socher: Open source is gaining and will continue to do so in the long term.
“it is very hard to compete with that in the long term the more Niche you are the more Technic it is the fewer people can appreciate using that technology”
Your call:
open Richard Socher: Training can be done very inexpensively in the future, with more focus on inference.
“training can be done very inexpensively and then you've spent a lot more time on inference and”
Your call:
open Richard Socher: Multimodal AI models will be developed that can handle text, images, programming, and proteins.
“you can ask an llm to create a specific kind of protein it”
Your call: