Balaji Srinivasan
13 tracked predictions · 0 hit · 0 partial · 0 miss · 13 still open
open Balaji Srinivasan: By roughly 2035, not having cryptocurrency will make you insolvent/non-operational the way not having a social media account today would disqualify a head of state.
“with Bitcoin by 2035 or so, maybe sooner, maybe later, just like you're not the president if you don't have a social media account, you're not a country if you don't have cryptocurrency, you're not solvent”
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open Balaji Srinivasan: The Bitcoin-driven bifurcation of the world into CCP-controlled currency versus decentralized BTC (and the associated collapse of Western fiat purchasing power) resolves by around 2035.
“2035 I think, but let me explain why I think it comes faster than you might think”
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open Balaji Srinivasan: Once Bitcoin's price reaches somewhere between $100,000 and $1,000,000, roughly half the world's billionaires become crypto-denominated billionaires, with the next 10x move diluting fiat billionaires, states, and banks.
“we calculated somewhere between $100,000 and a million dollars for Bitcoin, half the world's billionaires become crypto... it basically eats everything else of value in their portfolio”
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open Balaji Srinivasan: By the 2030s, if not sooner, the political alignment shifts to red and blue united against tech (socialists and nationalists vs. internationalist capitalists).
“I think by the 2030s if not sooner it's going to be red and blue against tech”
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open Balaji Srinivasan: Crypto, currently the number four global market after Shanghai, NYSE, and NASDAQ, will become the number one global market.
“crypto alone is the number four global market after Shanghai, NY, NASDAQ and gaining fast and will become the number one global market”
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open Balaji Srinivasan: No single dominant ASI will emerge in a winner-take-all hard-takeoff; instead government involvement will help preserve a multi-model, polytheistic AI landscape, contra Dave's one-god outcome (the two made this an explicit long bet to revisit).
“I also wouldn't take that bet because I think government involvement is what's going to force a somewhat poly[theistic outcome]... I think the natural dynamic is a winner take all but government involvement hopefully will preserve some balance”
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open Balaji Srinivasan: His skepticism that AI progress is primarily a function of spending more money/compute (rather than algorithmic or architectural breakthroughs) may prove wrong within about a year.
“this may turn out to be wrong in 12 months or a year”
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open Balaji Srinivasan: Eastern Europe, El Salvador (with Bukele potentially becoming "the Simon Bolivar of Latin America"), Argentina, Dubai, and Riyadh will outperform going forward, while Western Europe declines -- roughly the inverse of the 20th century.
“I'm extremely bullish on Eastern Europe. I'm extremely bearish on Western Europe. I think it'll be the opposite of the 20th century roughly”
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open Balaji Srinivasan: No clear solution to the problem of handling giant amounts of wealth beyond one person.
“I don't have an answer as to what to do with you know giant amounts of wealth and uh you know beyond one person”
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open Balaji Srinivasan: Redesign of governance in the future will be possible, allowing for the improvement of regulatory systems.
“Right in a in a network state in a in we it we're going to have the chance to redesign governance in the future”
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open Balaji Srinivasan: AI will significantly improve medical imaging, but regulatory bodies like the FDA will continue to hinder its progress.
“FDA has been holding that back all kinds of Medical Imaging stuff for example”
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open Balaji Srinivasan: Telemedicine from India could disrupt the US market with Indian doctors routing services to Indian services with different regulations.
“I think it's quite possible you start seeing tele medicine come in from India right for sure and maybe there's an indian-american doctor over here who's routing it okay and so they're like signing off within the system you have that like legal kind of thing and they're the ones who maybe they send it to an Indian service that has different regulations and that allows you to actually just automatically read this”
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open Balaji Srinivasan: Extreme longevity could be unbalanced for humanity, as it might hinder the colonization of other planets without changing our biological substrate.
“I think that basically for example we're not going to be able to easily colonize other planets um and and terraform them on the time scales there without you know probably changing our biological substrate right”
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