Alvin Wang Graylin
5 tracked predictions · 0 hit · 0 partial · 0 miss · 5 still open
open Alvin Wang Graylin: Chinese GPU makers (Moore Threads, Cambricon, Biren, etc.) will catch up enough to start exporting competitive chips internationally.
“within the next two or three years they will start to catch up to what America is doing and they will start to export their chips”
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open Alvin Wang Graylin: Within the next two years, a private-credit bubble financing the US AI data-center buildout will pop, prompting the US to ask China for financial help in exchange for a Taiwan-related quid pro quo.
“sometime in the next two years, there's a private credit bubble that the US is using to finance its data center buildout... and then the US asks China to help financially in return for a quid pro quo regarding Taiwan”
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open Alvin Wang Graylin: Under China's 'AI Plus' plan, 70% of Chinese companies will have integrated AI into their business within 5 years, rising to over 90% within 10 years.
“within the next 5 years we want to have 70% of companies integrate AI into their business... within the next 10 years we want to have 90 plus%”
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open Alvin Wang Graylin: China's share of global manufacturing capability will rise from about 35% today to 40-45% over the next 5-10 years, while the US's share continues to shrink.
“I think the forecast is it's going to go to 40 or 45% over the next 5 or 10 years”
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open Alvin Wang Graylin: The current 150-200+ Chinese humanoid robot companies will consolidate down to a single-digit number of survivors, mirroring the collapse of ~150 Chinese LLM labs to about 10.
“in the next year or two you'll see that 150 go down to probably a single-digit number of surviving human and robot companies”
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