Michael Saylor
13 tracked predictions · 2 hit · 2 partial · 1 miss · 8 still open
open Michael Saylor: Mainstream institutional adoption of Bitcoin began with the January 2024 spot ETF approvals and marks the start of a roughly ten-year 'gold rush' period.
“we have about a 10-year gold rush it runs to 2034... between 2024 and 2034 we will have mined 99% of all the Bitcoin”
Your call:
open Michael Saylor: By 2034, Bitcoin will simply be viewed as a normal, mainstream asset rather than the 'scary exotic thing' it is perceived as today.
“in 2034 it'll simply be the new thing right now it's like the scary exotic thing for most people”
Your call:
partial Michael Saylor: The April 2024 halving will be the most consequential in Bitcoin's history, cutting daily miner-issued supply roughly in half and creating a supply squeeze that is very bullish for the asset.
“it will be the most consequential having in the history of Bitcoin in my opinion... it's very bullish for the asset class and for Bitcoin holders”
open Michael Saylor: Daily new Bitcoin supply will fall to about 225 BTC/day by 2028 and become a statistical rounding error by 2032, as issuance keeps halving while demand persists.
“I think that by 2028 you'll be down to 225 Bitcoin a day... and by 2032 it's a rounding error in the noise”
Your call:
open Michael Saylor: Bitcoin will outperform the S&P 500 over time, even though its short-term price path is unpredictable.
“I can't tell you what it will [do] but I can tell you it will outperform the S&P 500 over time, that I'm quite sure of”
Your call:
hit Michael Saylor: Within the next one to two years, major Wall Street banks such as JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs will offer loans collateralized by spot Bitcoin ETF shares.
“sometime in the next year to two years I'm sure that major wirehouses like JP Morgan or Goldman Sachs will give you loans against that”
open Michael Saylor: The Bitcoin network's value will keep growing by orders of magnitude, moving from a trillion-dollar network toward a ten-trillion and eventually hundred-trillion-dollar network, absorbing any better crypto innovations into itself rather than being replaced.
“you're going to have a trillion, then a 10 trillion, then a hundred trillion dollar network”
Your call:
hit Michael Saylor: The direction of US digital-currency (CBDC/stablecoin) policy will be determined largely by the outcome of the November 2024 election and the incoming administration.
“I do think that the future of digital currencies in the US will probably be influenced heavily by the November elections and by the next administration”
open Michael Saylor: If Bitcoin is valued as digital gold and captures the ~$10 trillion gold market as a store of value, its price will reach $500,000 per coin.
“Gold's worth $10 trillion, and that takes Bitcoin to 500,000.”
Your call:
open Michael Saylor: If Bitcoin is valued as digital property and captures a $100 trillion share of the broader store-of-value asset class (land, buildings, etc.), its price will reach $5,000,000 per coin.
“at 10 trillion is 500,000, at 100 trillion is 5 million”
Your call:
open Michael Saylor: Bitcoin is marching toward being valued as a multi-hundred-trillion-dollar asset class, ultimately reaching roughly $10,000,000 per coin.
“I think, you know, we're marching toward $10 trillion, which is... $10 million a coin.”
Your call:
partial Michael Saylor: Zero-marginal-cost digital education could make a PhD-equivalent education available for about $1,000-$2,000 all-in, the price of an iPad and some electricity.
“you could create a PhD for $1,000 or $2,000 all in for the... price of an iPad and some electricity”
miss Michael Saylor: A simple, permissionless mobile wallet holding both fiat currency and Bitcoin will emerge and dematerialize the entire financial establishment, empowering everyone on Earth to control their own economic life force.
“It would completely dematerialize the entire financial establishment, and it would empower everybody on Earth to take possession of their life force.”