Mustafa Suleyman
6 tracked predictions · 0 hit · 0 partial · 0 miss · 6 still open
open Mustafa Suleyman: Microsoft will primarily be in the business of selling certified agents (reliable, secure, safe, trustworthy) rather than plain APIs, with the API/agent distinction blurring.
“maybe that we're principally in the business in 5 years time of selling agents that perform certain tasks that come with a certification of reliability, security, safety, and trust”
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open Mustafa Suleyman: Fully capable agentic AI (beyond the already-passed economic 'modern Turing test') will mature into very good, reliable action-taking systems.
“it's pretty clear that in the next couple of years, those things come into view and they're going to be very, very good”
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open Mustafa Suleyman: Microsoft AI will begin publicly shipping more of its own frontier models, appearing on trackers like Polymarket's 'best AI model' race, where it currently has no presence.
“yeah there will be yeah next year, we'll be putting out more and more models from us”
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open Mustafa Suleyman: There will come a point where it makes complete rational sense to every major power, including China, to cooperate on AI safety, containment and alignment out of self-preservation.
“there is going to be a time in the next 20 years where it will make complete sense to everybody on the planet, the Chinese included... to cooperate on safety and containment and alignment”
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open Mustafa Suleyman: Only companies able to sustain hundreds of billions of dollars in compute investment will remain competitive at the AI frontier, calling into question the viability of startups currently raising at $20-50B valuations.
“it's going to take hundreds of billions of dollars to keep up at the frontier over the next 5 to 10 years”
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open Mustafa Suleyman: Quantum computing will become a significant, relevant part of the compute mix alongside AI rather than staying sidelined, in a similar timeframe to synthetic biology's impact.
“I think it's going to be a big part of the mix... kind of an under-acknowledged part of the wave, actually a little bit like synthetic biology”
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