Ramez Naam
8 tracked predictions · 0 hit · 0 partial · 0 miss · 8 still open
open Ramez Naam: Scheduled GPU manufacturing volume (Nvidia, AMD, Cerebras) through 2030 implies roughly 230GW of chip-driven US AI power demand, while projected US grid buildout will only add about 100GW.
“US grid buildout is projected at roughly 100 gigawatt... there's 230 gigawatts of demand there.”
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open Ramez Naam: Battery-backed, off-peak-charging data centers (currently a novel approach pioneered by companies like Agentic Infrastructure) will become a very common industry practice.
“12 months from now this will be a super common approach.”
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open Ramez Naam: Grid flexibility approaches, including EV-charging-style load shaping, will supply about 100GW of the next five years of AI data center power growth.
“I think that's 100 gawatts... that's the next five years of AI data center growth.”
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open Ramez Naam: Nvidia's CUDA software moat will be effectively broken as AI-assisted code recompilation lets developers efficiently target AMD and other non-Nvidia chips.
“I think the CUDA moat is broken this year and next year.”
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open Ramez Naam: No company will actually have a commercial small modular reactor operating, despite industry projections targeting the early 2030s.
“I don't expect anyone to actually have a commercial small modular reactor in 2030, 2031.”
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open Ramez Naam: Helion will deliver on its power purchase agreement to provide Microsoft with 50 megawatts of fusion power.
“The most aggressive timeline is Helion. They have a power purchase agreement from Microsoft to provide 50 megawatts of power... in 2028.”
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open Ramez Naam: Around 2030, SpaceX aims for 100 gigawatts/year of orbital AI compute capacity, roughly equal to all of Earth's total compute today, requiring about 30,000 Starship launches per year (one roughly every 15 minutes).
“His target was 100 gawatts per year of compute in orbit initially, equivalent to the entire compute today.”
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open Ramez Naam: SpaceX will not get more than roughly a single gigawatt of AI compute into space, which would already be an impressive outcome relative to Musk's much larger stated ambitions.
“I don't think we're going to have... by 2030 if SpaceX has a single gigawatt in space, I will be very impressed.”
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